Mining the Diamond: Home Cookin’ Serving Up Winners in Monday’s MLB Picks

MiningTheDiamond

Swinging Johnson

Monday, September 11, 2017 3:53 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 11, 2017 3:53 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that scours each game seeking historical trends, pitching matchups, and the sharpest lines to deliver two top selections every day. Let’s see what Monday offers us as we cash those tickets.

Pirates (67-77, -8.8 Units) at Brewers (75-68, +16.4 Units)

  • Milwaukee is 50-35 (+15.8 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Milwaukee is 46-32 (+25.0 Units) against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.
  • Milwaukee is 39-34 (+11.1 Units) after a win this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 32-44 (-12.9 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 41-57 (-18.8 Units) in night games this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 8-13 (-5.0 Units) after three or more consecutive losses.

The Milwaukee Brewers have to be walking on air after sweeping the NL Central leading Cubs over the weekend. Milwaukee is now just two games back of Chicago and the division crown is within spitting distance. In order to draw closer, the Brew Crew will have to dispatch the Bucs tonight and keep their modest winning streak alive.

Fortunately for those backing Milwaukee tonight in their MLB picks like us, there appears to be a pitching mismatch with Brewers’ rookie righty Brandon Woodruff on the hill and taking his 2.08 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three into this one. He will be opposed by Pittsburgh’s Steven Brault who was serviceable in his lone start of the season last week when he allowed three runs on eight hits through five innings in a 4-3 Bucs’ win.

Pittsburgh has dropped its last five while Milwaukee is coming off a three-game sweep of the Cubs. Let’s back the home team with the better record, the hotter pitcher, and plenty of mojo headed into this crucial three-game series. The MLB odds may seem a bit steep for a team like Milwaukee but the spot dictates they are worth the price.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers -161Best Line Offered: at BOL

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Orioles (71-72, -4.1 Units) at Blue Jays (66-77, -22.2 Units)

  • Toronto is 15-10 (+2.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
  • Toronto is 8-7 (+1.0 Unit) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Toronto is 3-1 (+1.1 Units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
  • Baltimore is 13-27 (-14.3 Units) in road games after a loss this season.
  • Baltimore is 15-30 (-14.0 Units) in road games against right-handed starters this season.
  • Baltimore is 3-8 (-4.4 Units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.

These AL East rivals have seen quite a bit of each other this season with Toronto winning 15 of the 27 games between them. The teams split a four-game set in Baltimore earlier this month and now square off in Toronto for this three-game series. Toronto’s Marco Estrada is 6-1 when starting against the Orioles with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.13 and pitched a gem in his last outing where he blanked the Red Sox through seven innings in what resulted in a 3-2 loss for Toronto. Let’s back the Jays here as they have won their last two and catch a Baltimore team that is spiraling downward having lost four straight and five of their last six.

Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays -109Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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