Home Chalk Rules on Friday Night in our MLB Picks

Mining the Diamond Tanaka

Friday, May 26, 2017 4:02 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is on a 5-1 run in our MLB picks including yesterday’s sizeable underdog cashing with the San Diego Padres defeating the New York Mets. Let’s review Friday’s MLB slate and keep the winners rolling!

Padres (18-31, -9.4 units) vs. Nationals (28-18, +1.8 units)
  • Washington is 14-8 (+1.7 units) in home games this season.

  • Washington is 13-8 (+2.2 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • Washington is 45-33 (+3.2 units) in May over the last three seasons.

  • San Diego is 5-15 (-9.9 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • San Diego is 9-17 (-4.6 units) in road games this season.

  • San Diego is 13-22 (-6.6 units) against right-handed starters this season.

We cashed with the Padres in our MLB picks last night but we are turning the tables and going with the big home favorite here. The Nationals send their ace Max Scherzer to the hill against the Padres back-of-the-rotation guy Luis Perdomo. The 24-year-old Perdomo was blasted in his last outing when he allowed eight runs on 11 hits in a 9-1 drilling by the Diamondbacks.

The Nats should be loaded for bear tonight after watching their three-game win streak snapped last night in a 4-2 setback to the Mariners. Due to the prohibitive MLB odds, we are going to advise a wager on Washington using the run line versus the -250 money line in this one. Although I am not a big fan of laying 1 ½ runs, I take solace in the fact that of the Nationals’ last eight wins over the Padres, seven have been by more than one run. In addition, we have the highest scoring offense in the league pitted against the No. 28 offense. Let’s reduce the risk, lay the 1 ½ runs, and watch Scherzer dominate an anemic Padres lineup in Friday night’s matchup at Nationals Park.

 

Free MLB Pick: Nationals -1.5 (-111)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Athletics (21-25, --3.0 units) vs. Yankees (27-17, +7.9 units)
  • New York is 9-3 (+4.6 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

  • New York is 15-7 (+5.6 units) at home this season.

  • New York is 17-8 (+8.2 units) after a win this season.

  • Oakland is 1-5 (-4.5 units) when with a day off this season.

  • Oakland is 6-15 (-8.1 units) on the road this season.

  • Oakland is 12-19 (-5.6 units) in night games.

This is a chalky play to be sure as the Yankees are big home favorites tonight. However, when you consider that their starting pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka, has unearthly stats in this spot we have no choice but to lay the lumber. Tanaka’s team record is 16-3 (+12.6 units) in home games over the last two seasons, 16-4 (+12.6 units – team record) after a win over the last two seasons, and a perfect 15-0 (+15.1 units – team record) playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. In addition, Tanaka is 3-0 versus Oakland with an ERA of 1.31 and a WHIP of 0.774. Let’s not buck these compelling betting trends and back the home chalk here.

 

Free MLB Pick: Yankees -157Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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