Mining the Diamond: Heavy Home Chalk & Value on the Road in Friday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Friday, June 30, 2017 2:28 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 30, 2017 2:28 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that scours the board for the best pitching matchups and historical trends in order to deliver the top selections on the board. Let’s see what Friday has to offer.

Phillies (26-51, -17.8 units) at Mets (36-42, -13.1 units)
  • New York’s starter Jacob deGrom’s team record is 8-0 (+8.0 ) when starting against the Phillies with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.007.

  • New York is 15-7 (+1.7 Units) against the Phillies over the last three seasons.

  • New York is 55-40 (+10.4 ) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.

  • Philadelphia is 1-6 (--4.5 ) when playing with a day off this season.

  • Philadelphia is 16-38 (-18.7 ) against right-handed starters this season.

  • Philadelphia is 12-31 (-12.8 ) in road games this season.

These NL East rivals kick off a three-game set tonight and the Mets could not have a better guy going for them than Jacob deGrom…at least if the team they are facing is the Philadelphia Phillies. The 29-year-old righty has started eight times against the Phillies in his career and his team has emerged victorious on every occasion. And it just so happens that deGrom has been stellar over his last three outings as evidenced by his 3-0 record and a stunning 0.72 ERA in those appearances.

In addition, the Mets are on a roll, winning five of their last six, and now face a team sporting the worst record in the big leagues. Philadelphia will give the ball to Ben Lively who has failed to produce a winning effort over his last four starts and has an ERA of 4.66 in those games. I will grant you that the MLB odds are daunting as we rarely see a sub .500 club installed as -245 favorites as the Mets are here but we will lay the lumber and like it in our MLB picks on Friday night.

Free MLB Pick: Mets -245Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Cubs (40-39, -15.2 units) at Reds (33-45, -5.8 units)
  • Cincinnati is 3-14 (-11.3 Units) against left-handed starters this season.

  • Cincinnati is 17-26 (-4.8 ) after a loss this season.

  • Cincinnati’s starter Scott Feldman’s team record is 29-60 (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record.

  • Chicago is 17-5 (+9.3 Units) against the Reds over the last three seasons.

  • Chicago is 20-12 (+1.5 ) against division opponents this season.

  • Chicago is 154-97 (+24.2 ) in night games over the last three seasons.

The Cubs are 5-1 (+3.2 Units) against the Reds this season and although Chicago has failed to live up to their championship billing this season, there are spots when you can feel comfortable betting them – like this one. The Cubbies will send long reliever turned starter Mike Montgomery to the hill and the 27-year-old southpaw has dazzled under the spotlight. Over his last three starts, he has conjured a 1.06 ERA complemented by a 1.05 WHIP.

But perhaps more than an endorsement of the Cubs, or even Montgomery, is the big fade against the Reds’ starter Scott Feldman. The 12-year veteran was torched by the Cubs earlier this season when he allowed seven runs and was chased after only two-plus innings of a 7-5 loss. Let’s take a look at a few more compelling reasons to fade Feldman in this spot:

  • Scott Feldman’s team record is 42-59 (-29.8 Units) in home games in his career.

  • Scott Feldman’s team record is 29-60 (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in his career.

  • Scott Feldman’s team record is 8-19 (-13.2 Units) in night games over the last three seasons.

Let’s back the travelin’ Cubs in this one and cash a ticket!

Free MLB Pick: Cubs -107Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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