Mining the Diamond: Florida Teams Grabbing the Cash in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, August 15, 2017 3:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2017 3:23 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column where we research the pitching matchups, historical trends and the prevailing odds to deliver two top picks each day. Let’s see what Tuesday’s card holds in store for us.

Giants (47-73, -29.1 Units) at Marlins (57-60, +1.1 Units)
  • Miami is 6-0 (+7.0 Units) in home games in August games this season.
  • Miami is 15-8 (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
  • Miami is 32-26 (+11.6 Units) against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.
  • San Francisco is 20-41 (-20.1 Units) in road games this season.
  • San Francisco is 16-34 (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • San Francisco is 10-19 (-9.7 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

The Marlins are playing perhaps their best baseball of the season with a sweep of the Rockies and an 8-3 victory over the Giants in the opener of this three-game set last night. The Fish will be shooting for their fifth straight win, and we say they’ll get it. The only thing standing between Miami and a win is San Francisco’s starter Madison Bumgarner, who has been in peak form over his last three starts with a 1-1 record and a 1.29 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Despite those stellar stats, the Giants have lost two of those three games simply because their offense is so anemic. The Giants rank 28th in runs scored and that will be their undoing here.

Speaking of Bumgarner and his lack of run support, consider that the Giants ace’s team record is 1-7 (-9.6 Units) in his night games this season and 2-8 (-10.0 Units) in all his starts. The Marlins have been scoring an average of 5.75 runs per game over their four-game winning streak, which should be more than enough to get the job done. Oh, and if you want further convincing, Miami starter Daniel Straily is 4-0 when starting against San Francisco with an ERA of 1.91 and a WHIP of 0.74, while Bumgarner’s career team record vs. Miami is 1-5 (-5.0 Units) with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.44. Back Miami in your MLB picks tonight!

Free MLB Pick: Marlins -101Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Rays (59-61, -2.3 Units) at Blue Jays (57-61, -14.0 Units)
  • Toronto is 10-14 (-10.7 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
  • Toronto is 11-17 (-10.2 Units) against left-handed starters this season.
  • Toronto is 23-34 (-17.0 Units) after a win this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-1 (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing on Tuesday this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-4 (+3.4 Units) after three or more consecutive losses this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 12-10 (+3.6 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

We are going to be a bit contrarian here as we are backing the team on a four-game losing streak vs. the home team that has notched three consecutive wins. These teams are essentially even in terms of roster talent and their season records. Even the starting pitchers have ERAs within spitting distance of each other with Tampa’s Blake Snell owning a 4.80 and Toronto’s Marco Estrada’s 4.85. The problem the Rays are having is that their offense has fallen asleep, averaging just one run per game over this losing skein.

We see this game as essentially a coin flip, with the Rays due to bust out of its scoring funk. In addition, Estrada has historically failed when facing Tampa Bay as evidenced by his 1-6 career mark when starting against the Rays with an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.21. Let’s grab the generous number that the MLB odds makers are giving us and back the road dog here.

Free MLB Pick: Rays +113Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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