Mining the Diamond: Fade the Phillies & Back the Live Dog at Camden in Wednesday’s MLB Picks

Mining the Diamond 6/21

Wednesday, June 21, 2017 4:07 PM GMT

Yesterday we cashed a big underdog with the LA Angels over the Yankees and today Mining the Diamond gets back to work with two premium MLB picks for Wednesday.

Cardinals (32-37, -11.0 units) vs. Phillies (22-47, -20.8 units)
  • Philadelphia is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) when playing on Wednesday this season.

  • Philadelphia is 14-35 (-19.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • Philadelphia is 3-17 (-14.3 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • St. Louis is 35-25 (+11.0 Units) in road games after a win over the last two seasons.

  • St. Louis is 18-12 (+3.2 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

  • St. Louis is 4-0 (+4.0 units) versus Philadelphia this season.

Although we are not prone to backing a sub .500 road favorite, we can’t help but include the Cardinals in our MLB picks for Wednesday night. The Cards have a perfect 4-0 mark against the Phillies including last night’s 8-1 thrashing. St. Louis starter Michael Wacha posted an impressive outing against the Phillies just two weeks ago when he allowed two runs on five hits in a 3-2 victory. The Phillies’ starter Nick Pivetta started the following evening in that series and was hit for four runs in five innings of work in a 7-0 defeat. Philadelphia has been major league fade material recently after dropping 12 of their last 13 games. Back the road chalk here.

MLB Pick: Cardinals -123Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Indians (37-32, -11.7 units) at Baltimore (35-35, -1.2 units)
  • Baltimore is 18-7 (+10.7 Units) in home night games this season.

  • Baltimore is 18-8 (+9.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters this season.

  • Baltimore is 69-54 (+15.0 Units) after a win over the last two seasons.

  • Cleveland is 19-24 (-16.2 Units) in night games this season.

  • Cleveland is 24-32 (-18.8 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.

  • Cleveland is 1-7 (-7.4 units) versus the Orioles in games played at Baltimore over the last three seasons.

This is the third of four in this series between these two American League rivals and the MLB odds makers are giving us big value on the home dog. The teams have one win each and St. Louis is hoping to make it two straight after their 6-5 win last night. Baltimore’s starter Kevin Gausman is 2-0 when starting against the Indians with an ERA of 0.69 and a WHIP of 1.000. Ironically, the reason the O’s are such big underdogs in this matchup is Gausman himself. The 26-year-old southpaw has struggled recently but he has had particular success against Cleveland and his history tells us he will eventually get his mechanics back on track and into the win column. Back the home pup and cash a ticket.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +144Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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