Mining the Diamond: Cardinals & Nats Rule the Road in Thursday’s MLB Picks

STL Cardinals Mining The Diamond

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, September 21, 2017 2:49 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 21, 2017 2:49 PM GMT

Yesterday we cashed both our MLB picks, choosing to back the Cardinals and Red Sox on the run line, and both proved to be easy covers. Let’s see what Thursday’s slate has to offer and add to our bankroll.

Cardinals (79-72, -5.0 Units) at Reds (66-86, -8.7 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 42-55 (-6.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Cincinnati is 27-40 (-4.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Cincinnati is 13-21 (-3.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
  • St. Louis is 85-73 (+14.2 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.
  • St. Louis is 38-27 (+11.8 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.
  • St. Louis is 29-22 (+6.8 Units) in road games in night games this season.

The Cardinals crushed the Reds last night and that was no surprise to those who follow this column. St. Louis was one of our two MLB picks last night, with the Red Sox being the other and cruising to a 9-0 shutout of the Orioles, with both teams easily covering the -1 ½ runs. This looks like another prime spot to repeat our efforts as Homer Bailey of the Reds has been a disaster this season, particularly at home, where he is 1-5 with a 7.78 ERA. On the flipside, St. Louis’ starter Carlos Martinez has a career team record of 5-2 when facing Cincinnati and should get the job done today, especially with an offense that has registered 17 runs over the first two games of this three-game set and a possible wild card spot in the offing.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -1 ½ (+105)Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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 Nationals (92-59, +9.0 Units) at Braves (67-83, -2.5 Units)
  • Atlanta is 45-72 (-26.5 Units) in home night games over the last two seasons.
  • Atlanta is 26-35 (-11.9 Units) in home games against right-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta is 28-36 (-2.4 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • Washington is 66-31 (+24.7 Units) in night games this season.
  • Washington is 36-21 (+12.4 Units) in road games against right-handed starters this season.
  • Washington is 31-15 (+15.0 Units) in road games after a win this season.

The MLB odds on this one are far more generous on the visiting favorite than I had anticipated. Atlanta’s R.A. Dickey is pitching his age as he has been downright geriatric in his performances recently. Old Man Dickey is 0-2 with a 10.05 ERA with a 2.09 WHIP over his last three starts. In addition, Dickey has never fared well against the Nats, recording a 6-12 (-6.8 Units) team record with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

Washington has their eyes set on a sweep in this three-game series and Tanner Roark will contribute mightily towards that end. Roark has won his last two games and owns a 2.84 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP over his last three appearances. This could easily fit the criteria for a run line wager but because the money line is so palatable, we will lay it and like it!

Free MLB Pick: Nationals -132Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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