Mining the Diamond: Brewers & Redbirds Bring Value on the Highway in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

mining the diamond

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, July 18, 2017 2:40 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jul. 18, 2017 2:40 PM GMT

After a 2-0 Sunday we did the splits Monday with the Indians covering but the A's getting edged by the Rays. Let’s regroup and review the MLB odds, pitching matchups and historical trends to lock on to a pair of winners tonight!

Brewers (52-43, +16.8 Units) At Pirates (45-48, -0.8 Units)
  • Pittsburgh is 62-65 (-18.2 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.
  • Pittsburgh is 27-35 (-9.3 Units) in night games this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 92-110 (-28.6 Units) against right-handed starters over the last two seasons.
  • Milwaukee is 24-19 (+13.1 Units) in road games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 33-25 (+14.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 40-34 (+11.1 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

The Brew Crew has dropped their last two games, including Monday's 4-2 opener of this four-game set against their divisional rival Pirates. The pitching matchup tonight favors the Bucs with Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) of Pittsburgh vs. Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) of Milwaukee. The Pirates have also reeled off five wins in their last six games. So the question is why are we backing the Brewers in our MLB picks tonight?

The answer rests in part with the lineup each team is trotting out. Milwaukee is ranked 6th in runs scored vs. a Pittsburgh offense mired in the lower third of the league. Another reason is that Guerra has now had a long rest after getting tagged in two of his last three starts and should be ready to rock against a team with which he has had success in the past. Guerra’s team record against Pittsburgh is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.25. And let’s not overestimate Nova for the Pirates as his team record is 1-2 vs. Milwaukee and he brings a 4.07 ERA over his last three starts into this one.

Finally, the MLB odds are ripe for the plucking as the power rating line on this game actually has the Brewers favored -123, when in reality we are getting a delicious return of +137 from Bookmaker. Let’s back the road pup here and cash a ticket.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +137Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Cardinals (45-47, -9.6 Units) At Mets (41-49, -15.8 Units)
  • New York is 21-28 (-11.0 Units) after a loss this season.
  • New York is 9-15 (-11.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • New York is 6-12 (-7.6 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
  • St. Louis is 67-56 (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.
  • St. Louis’ starting pitcher Michael Wacha is 3-1 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.26.
  • St. Louis is 3-1 (+1.8 Units) versus the Mets this season.

This will be short and sweet. The Mets are abysmal and the Cardinals are not as bad as their sub-.500 record indicates. Michael Wacha has had success against the Mets in his four starts, going 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA, while the Mets’ Rafael Montero is a barely serviceable fifth starter on a lousy ball club. Let’s look for a repeat of Monday's 6-3 Cardinals’ victory and back the road chalk at a friendly price.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -115Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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