Mining the Diamond: Brew Crew Rock & Rockies Roll in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

brewers

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, June 27, 2017 3:13 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 27, 2017 3:13 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily column that scours the MLB odds and researches historical trends as well as pitching matchups to deliver two premium baseball picks exclusively for SBR readers. Here are Tuesday's. 

Brewers (41-37, +10.4 units) At Reds (31-44, -6.6 units)
  • Cincinnati is 16-26 (-5.8 units) after a loss this season.
  • Cincinnati is 11-18 (-3.6 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Cincinnati is 7-15 (-7.2 units) in June games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 20-15 (+11.2 Units) in road games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 27-22 (+10.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Milwaukee’s starter Junior Guerra’s team record is 10-3 (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.

The MLB odds makers have the wrong favorite in this one. The Brewers sit atop the NL Central, while their opponents today dwell in the cellar of that division. Milwaukee is also coming into this one off the heels of a 7-0 victory over the Braves and had a rare day off yesterday, while the Reds dropped an 8-2 decision in St. Louis on Monday and have now lost five of their last six.

In addition, Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been dazzling on the highway with a 10-3 team mark over the last two seasons and owns a 2.25 ERA on the road this season. He has also faced Cincinnati twice in his career and both starts resulted in victories. Milwaukee has won six of seven over the Reds this season, so let’s grab the juice and not ask any questions by backing the Brew Crew in our MLB picks for Tuesday night.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +118Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Rockies (47-32, +17.2 units) At Giants (28-51, -26.2 units)
  • San Francisco is 34-43 (-19.4 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.
  • San Francisco is 6-18 (-15.1 Units) in June games this season.
  • San Francisco is 6-13 (-9.9 Units) in home games when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.
  • Colorado is 19-11 (+8.7 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
  • Colorado is 33-22 (+9.7 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Colorado is 25-17 (+11.2 Units) in road games this season.

We did the splits on Monday with a winner on Chris Sale and the Red Sox but Colorado proved to be the disappointing loser. We are going back to the Rockies’ potentially poisonous well not because we are chasing our tails but because the power rating line has the Rox at -209, which means laying -125 at 5Dimes equals nothing but value here. Colorado is 10-2 ATS vs. the Giants this season, despite losing 9-2 Monday, and we expect big things from this offense tonight.

Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman looked impressive in his last outing against the Giants on June 15 when he allowed just one run through five innings in a 10-9 Colorado decision. Conversely, San Francisco starter Matt Cain got hammered by the Rockies to the tune of seven runs and was chased after four innings in a 12-11 loss on June 22. Let’s back the road chalk here and cash a ticket!

Free MLB Pick: Rockies -125Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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