Mining the Diamond: Braves & BoSox Rule in Thursday Night’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, June 29, 2017 2:36 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 29, 2017 2:36 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond did the splits yesterday but we are back with a look at the pitching matchups, historical trends, and MLB odds to deliver two top plays in Thursday’s MLB action.

Braves (37-40, +2.0 units) at Padres (32-46, -6.9 units)
  • San Diego is 2-6 (-3.5 units) when playing on Thursday this season.

  • San Diego is 7-14 (-5.9 units) against left-handed starters this season.

  • San Diego is 14-25 (-9.6 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • Atlanta is 41-40 (+24.0 Units) in road games in night games over the last two seasons.

  • Atlanta is 15-11 (+5.6 units) in June games this season.

  • Atlanta is 5-1 (+4.1 Units) against the Padres this season.

The Braves took a 3-0 decision in the opener of this three-game set only to fall by a 7-4 score last night. But the rubber game remains and we like the price on Atlanta tonight. Jaime Garcia will make the start tonight for the Braves and though the veteran southpaw has struggled in his last two outings, history tells us he will right the ship against the weak-hitting Padres. San Diego ranks dead last in runs scored and Garcia owns a team record of 5-2 (+2.4 units) when facing SD throughout his career. The last time Garcia took the mound against the Padres he limited San Diego to two runs on five hits through six plus innings resulting in a 5-4 Braves’ victory.

Conversely, San Diego has a rookie righty going in Dinelson Lamet who sports a not so nifty 6.60 ERA. He has never faced the Braves in his short tenure at the major league level but we suspect it won’t end well for him or his team tonight. Back the Braves in your MLB picks on Thursday night.

MLB Pick: Braves +107Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Twins (40-36, +7.9 units) at Red Sox (43-35, -2.4 units)
  • Boston is 9-2 (+5.4 units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

  • Boston is 24-14 (+3.4 units) in home games this season.

  • Boston is 23-11 (+8.6 units) after a loss this season.

  • Minnesota is 49-67 (-13.2 units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last three seasons.

  • Minnesota is 80-121 (-15.3 units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

  • Minnesota is 35-47 (-5.9 units) in June games over the last three seasons.

Boston starter David Price has had a tough time of it since signing an enormous contract with the Red Sox two years ago but after a stint on the DL to start the season it appears as though he may be coming around. And if he is anything close to the vintage David Price that baffled hitters before he landed in Boston, then look out because he can be one of the very best. Minnesota knows this all too well as Price is 9-3 when starting against the Twins with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.04.

Because the Twins have been so impressive on the road this season (24-11, +19.0 units) we will eschew laying the tall lumber that the MLB betting lines makers are demanding and get down on the run line. Although laying the 1 ½ runs is not one of our favorite things to do in life we are content knowing that in the four Boston victories over the Twins this year, the Sox have won by a minimum of three runs and their average margin of victory is 7.75 runs! Let’s back the home chalk on the run line and cash that ticket.

MLB Pick: Red Sox -1 ½ (+100)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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