Mining the Diamond: Braves & Rangers Score Big Betting Value in Thursday’s MLB Picks

mining diamond rangers

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, September 28, 2017 2:54 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 2:54 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that analyzes pitching matchups, historical trends and the value rendered by the MLB odds. Let’s see what Thursday’s slate offers as we deliver our two top selections.

Braves (71-87, -2.6 Units) at Marlins (74-84, -7.0 Units)
  • Miami is 30-40 (-11.3 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Miami is 63-84 (-28.7 Units) against division opponents over the last two seasons.
  • Miami is 4-12 (-8.9 Units) when playing on Thursday this season.
  • Atlanta is 42-37 (+8.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Atlanta is 71-86 (+24.0 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.
  • Atlanta is 15-14 (+6.7 Units) against left-handed starters this season.

The Braves and Marlins begin their last series of the season with Atlanta getting the best of Miami this season with a 10-5 (+4.9 Units) mark over their divisional rivals and having won 15 of 22 games played in Miami between these two clubs over the last three seasons. Atlanta’s Julio Teheran has come alive over his last three and has recorded a 1-1 record with a 1.35 ERA.

In addition, his performances on the road have been vastly superior to his home appearances. Teheran is 8-2 on the highway with a 2.94 ERA, while Miami’s starter Dillon Peters owns a bloated 6.32 ERA and a 0-3 team record when pitching at Marlins Park. Peters has also been battered recently, taking a 0-1 record with a 9.88 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP over his last three starts. The MLB odds are far too generous on the Braves here so let’s back the hot pitcher where he does his best work – on the road.

Free MLB Pick: Braves -103Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Athletics (73-85, -2.8 Units) at Rangers (76-82, -1.2 Units)
  • Texas is 29-19 (+15.1 Units) when playing on Thursday over the last three seasons.
  • Texas is 127-105 (+26.9 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Texas is 22-17 (+8.1 Units) against left-handed starters this season.
  • Oakland is 39-58 (-12.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Oakland is 9-25 (-11.9 Units) in road games against division opponents this season.
  • Oakland is 14-22 (-7.6 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Although both teams are mathematically eliminated from the postseason, we see a good spot for the Rangers in our MLB picks tonight. Texas right-hander Miguel Gonzalez’s career team record is 33-18 (+15.5 Units) in home night games, while Oakland starter Sean Manaea’s team record is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Rangers are also 5-1 (+3.5 Units) in their six meetings against the Athletics in games played at Globe Life Park this season. Let’s back the home dogs in this one.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers +107Best Line Offered: JustBet

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