Mining the Diamond: Braves & Birds Bring Value in Monday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Monday, August 28, 2017 2:08 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 28, 2017 2:08 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends and the value being rendered by the odds attached to each selection. Let’s see what we have on Monday’s slate of games.

Braves (57-71) at Phillies (48-81)
  • Philadelphia is 30-62 (-26.8 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Philadelphia is 25-57 (-26.1 Units) in night games this season.
  • Philadelphia is when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
  • Atlanta is 55-55 (+19.4 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Atlanta is 13-10 (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.
  • Atlanta is 6-1 (+7.6 Units) after getting shutout this season.

The Phillies may be 11-2 vs. the Braves this season and their starting pitcher, Aaron Nola, holds a career mark of 4-1 against Atlanta, but the MLB odds are begging us to buck those trends. Speaking of Nola, he has gotten hammered over his last two starts in allowing a combined 12 runs in losses to both San Francisco and Miami. Conversely, Atlanta’s starting pitcher, 23-year-old Lucas Sims, pitched a dandy in his last outing when he blanked the Mariners through six innings of work en route to a 4-0 victory.

The bottom line here is that the Phillies should never be north of -150 to any team, and we will gladly take the value that is being offered. Back the Braves in your MLB picks at a tasty price!

Free MLB Pick: Braves +143Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Mariners (66-65, -1.2 Units) at Orioles (65-65, -3.6 Units)
  • Baltimore is 65-42 (+16.1 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Baltimore is 35-29 (+6.4 Units) after a win this season.
  • Baltimore is 71-52 (+17.0 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons.
  • Seattle is 47-47 (-2.2 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Seattle’s starter Marco Gonzalez is 0-0 when starting against the Orioles with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 2.08.
  • Seattle is 155-154 (-17.8 Units) in night games over the last three seasons.

Baltimore has some good mojo heading into this three-game series with the Mariners after sweeping three in Boston and winning five of its last six games. Seattle is coming off consecutive losses to the Yankees, including Sunday's 10-1 bashing in New York.

In addition, Baltimore’s starter Chris Tillman has had tremendous success against Seattle with a 7-1 record and an ERA of 3.36 with a WHIP of 1.10 in his 10 career starts vs. the Mariners. Tillman has struggled and was banished to the bullpen earlier this month but posted two decent relief appearances before being summoned in his last start against the Angels, where he allowed four runs over five-plus innings of work in a 5-4 loss. However, before that scares you, remember that the Orioles’ offense has averaged 7.33 runs per game over their last six and have a decent enough bullpen to come to the rescue in the event that Tillman falters.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles -117Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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