Mining the Diamond: Bombers Set to Launch & Huge Value in the Lone Star State on Wednesday Night

Charlie Morton

Wednesday, May 3, 2017 3:58 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily column where we determine the top two MLB picks on the board using historical trends, pitching matchups, and the value we find on the MLB odds board. Let’s take a look at our two top picks for Wednesday night.

Blue Jays (9-18, -11.5 units) vs. Yankees (16-9, +5.6 units)
  • New York is 8-1 (+7.0 units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • New York is 43-26 (+15.2 units) at home when the money line is -125 to +125 over the last three seasons.

  • New York’s starter C.C. Sabathia is 14-6 (+9.0 Units) in night games over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

  • New York is 11-3 (+6.4 units) at home this season.

  • Toronto is 5-14 (-12.4 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • Toronto is 1-6 (-5.2 units) on the road when the money line is -125 to +125 this season.

  • Toronto is 1-5 (5.4 units) against left-handed starters this season.

  • Toronto’s starter Marcus Stroman is 5-13 (-15.3 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The MLB odds makers have made this a virtual flip of the coin but we see a distinct advantage for the Bombers in this one. Of course Toronto has a tough pitcher starting tonight in Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) but the big bats of the Yankees are coming alive as they are now 4th in runs scored in the majors and delivered an 11-5 victory over Toronto to even this three-game set last night. New York’s starter C.C. Sabathia (2-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has had success against Toronto throughout his career and is 14-6 (+9.0 Units) in night games over the last two seasons (Team's Record). Let’s hang with the home club at a bargain price.

Free MLB Pick: Yankees -105Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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 Rangers (11-16, -5.7 units) vs. Astros (18-9, +6.1 units)
  • Houston is 54-43 (-8.4 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.

  • Houston is 28-29 (-7.1 units) after three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

  • Houston’s starter Charlie Morton has a career ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.800 against Texas.

  • Texas is 92-85 (+32.1 Units) in road games over the last three seasons.

  • Texas is 144-109 (+49.1 units) in night games over the last three seasons.

  • Texas is 36-24 (+22.9 Units) in May games over the last three seasons.

  • 70-54 (+25.9 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.

Perhaps this is more of a fade of 33-year-old Houston starter Charlie Morton than an endorsement of this season’s edition of the Texas Rangers. Morton has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, allowing five runs and four runs against the Rays and Athletics respectively. Conversely, the Rangers’ starter Nick Martinez (0-0, 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) has acquitted himself quite well this season and is 3-0 when starting against the Astros with an ERA of 1.64 and a WHIP of 1.136 in his career starts against Houston. Texas is getting plenty of value here which is why they will be included in our MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers +167Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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