Mining the Diamond: Bombers & Cubs Poised to Cash in Thursday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond Chicago Cubs

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, July 27, 2017 3:46 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond peruses Thursday’s MLB odds to find the top choices on the board. Let’s analyze the pitching matchups, historical trends and lock onto a pair of winners today!

Rays (53-49, +3.5 Units) at Yankees (53-46, -4.6 Units)
  • New York is 37-19 (+16.9 Units) in home games against division opponents over the last two seasons.
  • New York is 73-63 (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
  • New York is 12-5 (+6.0 units) after three or more consecutive wins this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 75-91 (-20.4 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Tampa Bay is 25-27 (-3.1 Units) after a win this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 14-17 (-3.0 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

The two pitchers going tonight come into this meeting with strikingly similar stats but Sabathia owns a 9-3 record versus Archer’s 7-6 mark this season. Obviously a starting pitcher’s record is impacted by the team behind him and how many runs his lineup puts forth. However, Sabathia has a few trends going for him that tip the scales in his favor. First and foremost, his lineup is currently ranked 4th in runs scored versus a middling 15th for the Rays. But here are some stats to consider:

  • CC Sabathia’s team record is 12-4 (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
  • CC Sabathia’s team record is 8-1 (+7.9 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • CC Sabathia’s team record is 20-8 (+13.3 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.

The Yankees have won three straight and five of their last six with a home record of 28-17 versus a 24-26 road record for the Rays. Let’s take advantage of the palatable price being offered by the MLB odds makers and back the Bombers in our MLB picks tonight.

MLB Picks: Yankees -117Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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 Cubs (53-47, -15.0 Units) at White Sox (39-59, -7.3 Units)
  • White Sox are 22-39 (-9.6 Units) in night games this season.
  • White Sox are 4-10 (-4.4 Units) in inter-league games this season.
  • White Sox are 4-15 (-9.3 Units) in July games this season.
  • Cubs are 10-4 (+2.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of this season.
  • Cubs are 8-2 (+5.7 Units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
  • Cubs are 7-2 (+3.4 Units) when playing on Thursday this season.

Jon Lester has bounced backed marvelously after getting torched by the Pirates in the Cubs’ last game before the All-Star break. The 33-year-old southpaw has proceeded to pitch lights out in his two starts since with a combined 15 innings which totaled six hits and three runs, resulting in victories over the Braves and Cardinals.

The Cubs are beginning to roll after struggling in the first-half of the season. The team now sits atop the NL Central by half-a-game over the Brewers. The Cubbies dropped the first of this four-game series to the White Sox by the score of 3-1 but rebounded with 7-2 and 8-3 wins in games two and three. Lester should be able to handle this bottom tiered White Sox offense with ease which is why we are cutting the juice significantly and backing the Cubs on the run line here.

Free MLB Picks: Cubs -1 ½ (+130)Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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