Mining the Diamond: Birds & Braves Home Cookin’ in Monday’s MLB Picks

mining diamond

Swinging Johnson

Monday, August 21, 2017 3:34 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 21, 2017 3:34 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond begins a new week where we focus on pitching matchups, historical trends and the MLB odds. Let’s discuss our two top plays for Monday and start the week right!

Athletics (54-70, -11.0 Units) at Orioles (60-64, -6.7 Units)
  • Baltimore is 27-17 (+8.3 Units) in night home games this season.
  • Baltimore is 61-30 (+21.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.
  • Baltimore is 10-4 (+6.0 Units) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Oakland is 44-77 (-33.0 Units) against left-handed starters over the last three seasons.
  • Oakland is 81-111 (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.
  • Oakland is 20-39 (-13.5 Units) in road games this season.

The Orioles are 6-1 (+5.0 Units) vs. the A’s in games played at Camden Yards over the last three seasons. The teams split a four-game series in Oakland last week, but the opener of this three-game set in Baltimore should favor the Birds. Oakland’s starter Chris Smith has gotten roughed up in his last three starts as reflected in his 0-1 record with a 6.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. On the other hand, Baltimore’s Wade Miley checks in with a 1-1 record, a 2.70 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP over his last three and is 3-1 when starting against the Athletics in his four career starts with an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.14.

I grant you the sub-.500 Orioles are a bit long on the MLB odds board today, but they have fared well against Oakland in Baltimore and definitely enjoy a big pitching advantage here. Let’s lay the lumber and back Baltimore in our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles -155Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Mariners (63-62, -2.6 Units) at Braves (55-67, -1.0 Units)
  • Atlanta is 10-10 (+3.8 Units) against left-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta is 20-16 (+4.0 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Atlanta is 29-25 (+6.9 Units) in all games when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Seattle is 28-33 (-8.4 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Seattle is 45-45 (-2.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Seattle is 9-9 (-1.5 Units) in August games this season.

The Braves defeated the Reds on Sunday by the score of 8-1, while the Mariners saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 3-0 blanking by the Tampa Bay Rays. The reason we see the Braves as home dogs in this matchup has been the recent funk by starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. The veteran hurler has been uncharacteristically roughed up in his last two outings but should return to form tonight. Here are a few trends to consider:

  • Foltynewicz’s team record is 9-1 (+10.0 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Foltynewicz’s team record is 12-6 (+9.8 Units) in night games this season.
  • Foltynewicz’s team record is 12-7 (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Back the Braves with Foltynewicz breaking out of his funk and Atlanta’s lineup building off of last night’s decisive victory.

Free MLB Pick: Braves +102Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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