Mining the Diamond: Big Dogs Set to Howl on Saturday!

White Sox pitcher Derek Holland

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, April 29, 2017 2:31 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column where we mine data, study trends and find favorable pitching matchups. Let's review the MLB odds and identify a pair of winners for Saturday.

White Sox (12-9, +7.20 units) vs. Tigers (11-11, +0.1 units)

* Detroit is 69-80 (-14.4 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the past three years.

* Detroit's bullpen has a 6.97 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP in home games this season.

* Detroit is averaging 3.1 runs per game with a .196 batting average against left-handed starters this season.

* Chicago is 11-7 (+7.4 units) against teams in their division this season.

* Chicago's bullpen has a 1.57 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP on the road this season.

* Chicago is 4-1 (+4.6 units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.

The oddsmakers have miscalculated this matchup in my opinion. And it's not just a minor adjustment they need to make. The White Sox are rolling with five consecutive wins, including last night's 7-3 win over the Tigers, and they have Derek Holland on the hill whose team record is 6-0 (+6.7 units) against Detroit over the course of his career. You can bet he will get support from his lineup if they continue to smash the ball the way they have been over the course of this winning streak. The Chicago offense has averaged eight runs per game over that stretch and we are simply getting too much value to not include the road dogs in our MLB picks today.

 

Free MLB Pick: White Sox +155Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Mariners (11-13, -1.2 units) vs. Cleveland (12-10, -4.8 units)

* Cleveland is 2-4 (-6.0 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* Cleveland is 0-3 (-6.6 units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

* Cleveland is 4-6 (-6.8 units) in home games this season.

* Seattle is 5-2 (+3.5 units) in day games this season.

* Seattle is averaging 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

* Seattle is averaging 7 runs per game in days games this season.

The pitching matchup is fairly even as Yovani Gallardo (1-2, 4.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) and Danny Salazar (1-2, 4.37 ERA, 1.50) have both been merely serviceable thus far this season. However, the Mariners have now won four of their last five, including last night's 7-3 victory over the Tribe, and have fared quite well in games played in Cleveland over the past three seasons as evidenced by their 5-2 (+4.95 units) road record against the Indians. Here again, we have a value play and though I don't feel the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite, they do have the wrong price and are simply giving too great a return on the underdog. Let's take advantage of their generosity and back the road dog in this one.

 

Free MLB Pick: Mariners +178Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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