Mining the Diamond: Big Dog Padres and Big Blue on the Run Line #FTW

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, August 27, 2017 4:08 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 27, 2017 4:08 PM UTC

We did the splits yesterday by cashing with the Nationals on the run line who went about their business and pummeled the Mets by the score of 9-4 but the Reds dropped a 1-0 pitcher's duel to the Pirates which cost us a sweep. Let's review Sunday's MLB odds and cash a pair today!

Padres (57-72, +2.2 Units) at Marlins (65-63, +6.5 Units)

* Miami is 11-15 (-2.5 Units) against left-handed starters this season.

* Miami is 3-10 (-7.4 Units) after three or more consecutive wins this season.

* Miami is 54-58 (-6.3 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons.

* San Diego is 44-51 (+6.8 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* San Diego is 7-11 (+3.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

* San Diego's starter Clayton Richard is 3-1 when starting against the Marlins with an ERA of 1.99 and a WHIP of 1.35.

There's an old gambling axiom that states, "there is no value in losing". That is impossible to refute but the only problem is that there is no crystal ball allowing you to peer into the future to determine whether your value bet will cash or not. If you make a value play, like the one we are making with the Padres, and the big underdog cashes then you look pretty smart. However, if your value play crashes and burns you will clearly understand the wisdom in such dogma.

Now that I have issued my caveat emptor, I am siding with the road dogs in this one. The Padres send Clayton Richard to the bump against a team with whom he has had success in the past. Richard owns a 3-1 mark against the Fish and a sterling 1.99 ERA. In his last appearance against Miami, the 33-year-old veteran pitched a dandy when he blanked the Marlins through seven innings before he departed and watched his team claim a 1-0 victory. That outing occurred exactly one year ago today and here he is again facing the same opponent. Richard heads into this one with a 1-0 record and a 3.05 ERA complemented by a 1.11 WHIP over his last three.

The bottom line is that San Diego is simply getting too much value from the MLB odds makers and we intend to take advantage of that generosity. Back San Diego in your MLB picks today.

Free MLB Picks: Padres +153Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Brewers (67-63, +12.1 Units) at Dodgers (91-37, +34.0 Units)

* Los Angeles is 35-12 (+15.5 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

* Los Angeles is 27-6 (+14.0 Units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

* Los Angeles is 52-15 (+24.3 Units) in home games this season.

* Milwaukee is 19-23 (-1.2 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

* Milwaukee is 10-32 (-12.3 Units) as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last three seasons.

* Milwaukee is 33-46 (-14.0 Units) in August games over the last three seasons.

Let's not overthink this one. The Dodgers lost a rare game and got shutout to boot last night by the Brewers. LA will not be happy and will be determined to win the rubber game of this three-game match. Yu Darvish is back after a 10-day rest on the shelf (back) and LA has not lost a game since they acquired him last month. Darvish has a 2.50 ERA and  a 1.11 WHIP with his new club while Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has gotten tagged recently as evidenced by his 9.00 ERA and 2.20 WHIP over his last three.

Bet Big Blue on the run line here and avoid paying the big price if things go sideways and Darvish is a bit rusty after his brief sabbatical.

Free MLB Picks: Dodgers - 1 ½ (+110)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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