Mining the Diamond: Big Dog Bites Washington & BoSox Poised to Repeat in Saturday's MLB Picks

Saturday, September 9, 2017 4:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 9, 2017 4:44 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond cashed one of two of our MLB picks with the Boston Red Sox cruising to victory over the Tampa Bay Rays while the Cubs were edged by the visiting Brewers. Let's get locked and loaded to sweep a pair on Saturday's MLB slate.

Phillies (53-88, -20.2 Units) at Nationals (87-54, +12.2 Units)

* Washington is 24-28 (-12.9 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Washington is 23-21 (-9.6 Units) in home games after a win this season.

* Washington is 10-11 (-6.4 Units) when playing on Saturday this season.

* Washington is 21-20 (-9.4 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

* Philadelphia is 30-32 (+5.8 Units) against division opponents this season.

There are times when the odds just don't add up and this is the case with tonight's affair between the woeful Philadelphia Phillies and the NL East leading Washington Nationals. Worst plays first, yet these teams have battled tooth and nail all season long with Washington winning nine of 14 between the two divisional rivals this season.

But what you may not realize is that seven of those nine victories over Philadelphia have been by a margin of two runs or less. These first two games of this four-game set have been decided by one run with Washington coming out on top in both. Now we have a pair of bullpens that are tired with Philadelphia using three relievers last night while Washington used five. Nats' starter Edwin Jackson is 2-6 when starting against the Phillies with an ERA of 5.87 and a WHIP of 1.63 and is 56-74 (-25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over his career. Let's grab the heavy juice on the road dog and look for the upset!

Free MLB Pick: Phillies +163Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Rays (70-72, -4.2 Units) at Red Sox (80-61, +3.0 Units)

* Boston is 40-21 (+19.4 Units) in September games over the last three seasons.

* Boston is 64-44 (+9.9 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Boston is 14-2 (+10.4 Units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

* Tampa Bay is 73-91 (-21.7 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons.

* Tampa Bay is 87-109 (-26.8 Units) in night games over the last two seasons

* Tampa Bay is 9-13 (-6.5 Units) when playing on Saturday this season.

I am thrilled that Chris Sale has had a couple of clunkers as bookends to a gem he tossed against the Blue Jays, which resulted in a 3-0 win for the Red Sox on August 29th. Those uncharacteristic subpar performances only tarnishes his aura of invincibility and thus lowers the MLB odds on his team. Unfortunately, those odds aren't nearly low enough as we see most offshore shops are offering the heavily favored home Sox at about -250.

Therefore, we will shift gears and back Sale and the BoSox on the run line here. Four of Boston's six wins against the Rays have been by two or more runs and those two that were one-run games occurred way back in April. Factor in that Tampa has a pitcher in Matt Andriese who returned after a two-month absence (hip) only to get hammered by the White Sox last Sunday in his first start back when he surrendered five runs through five innings of work.  Let's watch another offensive explosion by the BoSox who banged out a 9-3 win over the Rays last night and will do more damage again tonight. Include Boston in your MLB picks for Saturday night.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -1 ½ (-120)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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