Mining the Diamond: Big Dog Barks & Small Road Fave Set to Cash in Saturday's MLB Picks

Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, June 10, 2017 3:48 PM GMT

Saturday, Jun. 10, 2017 3:48 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that explores historical trends, pitching matchups and the odds on each and every game. After doing our homework we have a pair of plays on Saturday that are ready to cash!

Angels (32-32, +0.1 unit) vs. Astros (43-19, +17.8 units)

* Houston is 3-5 (-4.0 units) when playing on Saturday this season.

* Houston's starter Michael Fiers' team record is 3-3 (-1.4 units) with an ERA of 5.30 and a WHIP of 1.31 against the Angels throughout his career.

* Houston is 58-47 (-10.4 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.

* Los Angeles' starter Ricky Nolasco's team record is 43-37 (+22.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record throughout his career.

* Los Angeles is 100-89 (+10.2 units) after a win over the last three seasons.

* Los Angeles is 16-14 (+2.7 units) against division opponents this season.

The Angles have now won three of their last four including the opener of this three-game set with Houston by the score of 9-4. Conversely, the Astros have returned to earth after an unconscious winning streak in which they reeled off 11 straight before dropping three of their last four. I cannot help but be tempted by the generous return the oddsmakers are offering on a team like Los Angeles, that is in the middle of the pack but playing better, and with a pitcher on the mound in Ricky Nolasco whose team record is a superb 8-1 (+7.6 units) versus Houston in his career. Let's take a flier on the big road dog in our MLB picks on Saturday.

 

Free MLB Pick: Angels +165Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Royals (26-34, -4.0 units) vs. Padres (24-38, -7.9 units)

* San Diego is 9-20 (-9.4 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

* San Diego is 2-7 (-4.6 units) when playing on Saturday this season.

* San Diego is 18-27 (-4.2 units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Kansas City is 5-2 (+4.9 units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

* Kansas City is 62-50 (+16.1 units) in day games over the last three seasons.

* Kansas City's starter Ian Kennedy is 7-2 when starting against the Padres with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.052 over his career.

The Padres snapped their five-game drought with a 6-3 win over the Royals in their home opener of this three-game series. However, KC's starter Ian Kennedy has had tremendous success against San Diego throughout his career with a 7-2 record and a 3.05 ERA. He will be opposed by 22-year-old Miguel Diaz who will make his 2017 starting debut after garnering a bloated 7.50 ERA in 24 innings of relief this season for San Diego. The Royals veteran bats should handle a young starter who can't even get outs when doing an inning or two in relief, let alone an MLB start. Kansas City is the slight road chalk here but we will be happy to lay it and watch them even up this series.

 

Free MLB Pick: Royals -120Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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