Mining the Diamond: Big Blue & BoSox Bring Beaucoup Bucks in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 3:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 19, 2017 3:12 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column delivering two top selections each day. We base our opinions on pitching matchups, historical trends and the value rendered by the odds on our selections. Let’s see what Tuesday’s card holds in store for us.

Dodgers (96-54, +6.3 Units) at Phillies (59-91, -14.9 Units)
  • Philadelphia is 35-62 (-16.8 Units) in night games this season.
  • Philadelphia is 38-71 (-25.4 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Philadelphia is 25-34 (-4.4 Units) after a win this season.
  • Los Angeles is 53-20 (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • Los Angeles is 15-7 (+4.9 Units) when playing on Tuesday this season.
  • Los Angeles is 19-11 (+3.0 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

The Dodgers were a veritable ATM earlier this season and now the public has shied away from backing them due to their August/September swoon that has seen them post a 5-18 record, reminiscent of the team they face tonight. But here at Mining the Diamond, we have stayed away from LA for the most part due to the untenable MLB odds being installed on the runaway freight train that was the Dodgers.

However, now that the public has felt the sting of what laying huge numbers will do, the oddsmakers need to attract buyers on Big Blue and in this spot, with Yu Darvish on the hill, we feel that the price is right and LA will cash. Darvish was masterful in his last start, shutting out the Giants through seven innings and allowing just three hits en route to a 7-0 win. Darvish did almost the same to these same Phillies he will face tonight back on May 16th when he held Philadelphia to one run through seven innings in LA’s 5-1 victory. We see a repeat performance so back the Dodgers in your MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -156Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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 Red Sox (86-64, +4.7 Units) at Orioles (73-78, -7.8 Units)
  • Baltimore is 5-12 (-7.2 Units) in September games this season.
  • Baltimore is 5-8 (-3.3 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more this season.
  • Baltimore is 14-20 (-5.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
  • Boston is 46-24 (+21.1 Units) in September games over the last three seasons.
  • Boston is 19-2 (+18.4 Units) when playing on Tuesday this season.
  • Boston is 65-43 (+11.1 Units) in night games this season.

There must be something about Tuesday baseball that fancies the Red Sox because they have won 19 of 21 games when played on that day of the week, and guess what today is? Yes, it’s Tuesday and Boston has to be inspired with their thrilling come-from-behind, extra innings victory last night. Down 6-1 headed into the fifth inning, Boston erupted for six runs to take a short-lived one run lead before Baltimore went back up by one in the bottom of that frame. When the dust settled the BoSox came away with a 10-8 victory in eleven innings.

Drew Pomeranz is on the hill for Boston and he takes his 16-5 mark with a 3.28 ERA into this one. The veteran southpaw is 2-2 in his four career starts versus Baltimore but this spot sets up nicely for him as he has a few trends working in his favor:

  • Pomeranz’s team record is 12-3 (+9.0 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • Pomeranz’s team record is 16-4 (+12.2 Units) in night games this season

His counter-number, Kevin Gausman, is 3-6 when starting against the Red Sox with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.31. That certainly doesn’t send shivers up my spine and when you consider our power rating on this game has Boston as a -157 favorite, well, there’s plenty of value to be had on the AL East leaders tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox +106Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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