Mining the Diamond: Astros Advance over Staggering Red Sox

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, October 8, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 8, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond has gone 3-0 in our MLB picks during the postseason and now we turn our attention to the Game 3 ALDS clash between the Astros and Red Sox. Let's review the numbers and cash another winning ticket.

Astros (103-61, +13.9 Units) at Red Sox (93-71, +2.7 Units)

* Boston is 0-8 (-8.8 Units) in October games over the last two seasons.

* Boston is 18-20 (-5.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

* Boston's starter Doug Fister's team record is 9-16 (-10.6 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.

* Houston is 25-8 (+12.9 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

* Houston is 80-37 (+25.5 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Houston is 18-7 (+9.5 Units) in road games after three or more consecutive wins this season.

I feel like I have already read the 2017 Red Sox obituary in tomorrow's newspapers. There will be talk of whether a manager should be fired after leading his team to consecutive division titles but getting swept in the ALDS in both those years. Boston manager John Farrell will be examined, reexamined, scrutinized and discussed ad nauseam after today's inevitable loss to the Houston Astros. This will happen because Houston is a better team in all aspects of the game.

The Astros have now won five of their last six against the Red Sox and have Brad Peacock on the hill who has registered a 3-0 mark with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over his last three. His last outing came against these very same Red Sox when he tossed five innings of two-run ball in a 12-2 Fenway massacre of Boston back on September 28th. Conversely, the Sox are sending Doug Fister to the hill because - well - they have to send someone. Boston's rotation has a decent one-two punch with Sale and Pomeranz but after that it's desolate. Fister is simply the best of a poor lot at this point in the season. The 33-year-old righty has had a rough end of the season going 0-1 with a 7.82 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP over his last three.

The MLB odds are solidly favoring the Astros as this line opened at Houston -130 and is trending upwards in all of the major offshore books. We can't say we blame them because there is no reason to believe, and no data to support, that there is any value on Boston in this one. Include the Houston Astros in your MLB picks this afternoon.

Free MLB Pick: Astros -132
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3330493, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,999996,442,169,19], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here