Mining The Diamond: AL Wildcard Picks -Twins vs. Yankees

Swinging Johnson

Monday, October 2, 2017 2:07 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 2, 2017 2:07 PM UTC

The first leg of the postseason is upon us as the Twins hope to continue their historical season, from the worst team last year to playoff contender this year, with a win over the Yankees. Let’s see what the numbers and the MLB odds are telling us.

Twins (85-77, +11.6 Units) at Yankees (91-71, -0.6 Units)

  • New York is 3-8 (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with a day off this season.
  • New York is 10-12 (-7.3 Units) when playing on Tuesday this season.
  • New York is 2-6 (-5.4 Units) in October games over the last three seasons.
  • Minnesota is 58-44 (+16.1 Units) in night games this season.
  • Minnesota is 44-37 (+15.3 Units) in road games this season.
  • Minnesota is 59-54 (+7.4 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

If there is a Cinderella story this season it belongs to the Minnesota Twins. After losing 103 games in 2016 the Twins shook free from the funk of a hellacious season and rebounded with a wildcard berth in 2017. Now they take the first step towards advancing in the playoffs with a trip to the Bronx where they square off against the New York Yankees.

Ervin Santana, Minnesota’s ace, and 12-year veteran led the team in wins (16), ERA (3.28), and strikeouts (167) will take the hill to face a Yankees’ lineup that produced 5.3 runs per game which were second in the big leagues this year. However, the Bombers’ bats were relatively silent as they produced just four runs over their most recent three-game set against the Blue Jays. Santana’s last three starts against New York, dating back to last season, produced a 1-1 record with a 2.49 ERA while his counter-number, Luis Severino, has faced Minnesota just once in his career. That September 20, 2017, start ended abruptly after three innings in which he surrendered three earned runs in just three innings of work.

Road Favors Santana

The MLB odds on this game have the Yankees at a prohibitive -240 in most shops but the reality is that these teams are much closer than that. Although New York has won four of six against Minnesota this season, our power ratings have this game as a coin flip. New York is a public team and the squares love betting home favorites. And because of their penchant for chalky sides, the oddsmakers oftentimes overcorrect and render generous odds on the underdogs. That is exactly what is transpiring in this matchup. Severino has an ERA of 3.71 at home versus a 2.25 on the road. On the flipside, Santana is 10-3 on the highway with a 2.71 ERA. Both pitchers have thrived on the road this season but only Santana has that luxury in this game. Let’s grab the road dog here in our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Twins +218
Best Lines Are At 5Dimes

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