Miller & Bumgarner Worthy Of Your MLB Picks When Betting On Tonight's Props

Friday, July 15, 2016 8:20 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 15, 2016 8:20 PM UTC

We have been red hot over the last few weeks in our player prop picks, and with the All Star Break over, it’s time to dive right back into player prop picks. I have found two excellent values for tonight’s slate, and I am releasing them absolutely free of charge.

Brad Miller O/U 1 ½ runs, hits and RBI’s
I talked about this one on the Odds Couple show, but with Yovani Gallardo on the mound for the Orioles, I love the lefty, Brad Miller tonight. I’ll start by prefacing that this play had a lot of chalk at -135 for MLB Odds, but I think it’s Bovada realizing that they should have opened Miller’s number at 2 for Friday’s matchup.

Miller went into the All Star Break clubbing four home runs in his last 10 games, but he also hit .190 during that stretch. However, tonight’s matchup gives him a great chance to continue that home run hitting streak, which essentially is all we need for a nice winning ticket. Miller has a wOBA of .317 and an isolated power of .226 against right-handers. These are modest numbers, but with his hot streak, the price is reasonable.

Where is gets to be a must play is Gallardo’s part in all of this. Lefties own a .420 wOBA and a .356 BABIP against Gallardo this season, while they own a 35.9 hard hit rate and a 42.2 fly ball rate. All this translates into lefties club Gallardo. He has given up five home runs to lefties against only 91 batters this season, compared to only one home run allowed against 104 righties. Miller has 13 of his 14 home runs against right-handers this season, and he has a great chance to club number 15 tonight.

Free MLB Pick: OVER 1 ½ -135
Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Madison Bumgarner O/U 7 ½ strikeouts
When I saw this prop I was puzzled as to why a pitcher like Madison Bumgarner - who has a strikeouts per nine innings mark better than 10 this season – has a strikeout total of only 7 ½ tonight against the Padres. Once again, the chalk has gotten to us at -135 for the over, but if you only choose one of these props tonight, Bumgarner might be your ticket cashing play.

Bumgarner has a strikeout rate of 28.5 percent this season, and while some of his overall strikeout totals have been down, he sat down 14 Diamondbacks on his last start heading into the All Star Break, and tonight he gets one of the more strikeout prone lineups in the majors. The Padres rank third in the league in strikeout rate at 24.3 percent, and against lefties they are at 23.8 percent.

While Bumgarner could easily have six or seven strikeouts tonight, I think he is at least getting to nine tonight, and double digits is also a possibility. With that in mind, take the over and add it to your MLB Picks to kick off the second half.

Free MLB Pick: OVER 7 ½ -135 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada ​

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