Mets vs. Phillies MLB Picks and Predictions

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Mets vs. Phillies MLB Picks and Predictions
Luis Guillorme #13, Francisco Lindor #12, Jeff McNeil #6, and Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets celebrate. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/AFP

Day baseball dominates the Tuesday MLB betting lineup, and among the matchups is the rubber game in the first series of 2021 between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, April 06, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park

After not being able to give ace Jacob deGrom enough support in Monday’s series opener, a 5-3 Phillies win, the Mets provided plenty of offense for Marcus Stroman in an 8-4 series leveler on Tuesday. A 4-run seventh inning was the difference for New York, the inning highlighted by Kevin Pillar’s steal of home, while Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso each cracked home runs for the Mets. The contest went ‘over’ the total for a second consecutive game in the series, and fourth-straight time in the rivalry dating back to September 2020.

Peterson Anxious to Build off Rookie Campaign

The series finale has a late-afternoon start, and the Mets will hurry back to Queens for a quick turnaround in their home-opener against the Miami Marlins in a Thursday matinee. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (0-0, 2.70) takes the mound for a second time this season with online betting sites chalking the righthander around -150 on the moneyline. David Peterson (0-0, 0.00) makes his first start of 2021 for New York, and an 8-run total favors the ‘over.’

New York might be down a man after third baseman JD Davis was plunked on his left hand by a Chase Anderson offering in the second game of the set. Davis was removed from the game and x-rays showed it to be just a bruise, and updates have him listed as questionable for Wednesday’s contest.

Peterson followed up a solid showing during his 2020 rookie season with a nice spring. New York’s 1st-round pick – 20th overall – out of Oregon in 2017, the southpaw recorded a 6-2 record and 3.44 ERA a year ago across nine starts and a relief outing, then made three starts with a 3.75 ERA at Port St. Lucie to earn the No. 3 slot in the Mets’ rotation. Peterson’s only start against the Phillies in 2020 was one he’d rather forget, lasting all of two innings while Philadelphia plated five runs, two of those on a Rhys Hoskins homer.

Phils’ Bullpen Finally Proves Human

Stingy relief pitching was behind the Phillies cashing MLB odds slips in their first four games, but that wasn’t the case on Tuesday when the Philadelphia bullpen allowed six the New York’s eight runs. All four outs Vince Velasquez got came via the strikeout, but the former 2nd-round pick from 2010 was also responsible for four plate crossings. David Hale worked the final two innings and surrendered a pair of runs, both on Alonso’s 9th-inning blast.

Tasked with his fourth consecutive Opening Day start, and third of those against the Atlanta Braves, Nola was sharp in his season debut last Thursday. The Baton Rouge native worked into the seventh and allowed just two runs, both coming on a Pablo Sandoval homer. The seventh overall pick out of LSU in 2014 had mixed spring results, striking out 19 across 17.2 innings, but also allowing 19 hits while pitching to a 5.60 ERA. Likewise, Nola had mixed results against the Mets last season, tossing seven shutout frames for the win in August but then allowing 11 runs (8 earned) in two September starts, Philadelphia dropping both of those contests.

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Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

Finishing off the 3-game set behind the mask for the umpire crew will be Ryan Blakney, now in his seventh season at the MLB level and calling balls and strikes for the first time in 2021. One of the younger umpires in the league, the 35-year-old worked the dish 13 times last season with a 6-7 O/U record. Blakney was primarily assigned to the Midwest in 2020, but did get in one plate assignment in Philadelphia that went ‘over’ the mark.

A cool a wet start to the day is in Philadelphia’s forecast, but the weatherman says the rain will move out by midday and the skies will clear for the start of the game. First pitch should find the thermometer in the upper-60s with a light NNE breeze (in from right-center). I’m on a series sweep for the ‘over’ with my free MLB pick.

MLB pick: Over 8 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Over 8 (-113)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.