The Mets took the opener of a quick two-game set at Camden Yards Tuesday night, and are underdogs for Wednesday night's contest. Can New York complete the sweep, or should we go with the O's?
Mets-O's Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best line available on Baltimore and Ubaldo Jimenez was the -121 offered at JustBet, while New York and rookie righty Noah Syndergaard were getting +118 at GT Bets. And every shop on our MLB odds board listed a total on tonight's game of 7.5 runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the OVER.
New York grabbed the opener of this two-game series Tuesday night 5-3, getting a pair of homers from Curtis Granderson and a quality outing from starter Jake deGrom. The victory snapped a three-game losing streak for the Mets, while the loss broke a four-game winning streak for Baltimore.
At 61-57 the Orioles lost a game Tuesday in the AL East race, and now trail the first-place Yankees by five games. They also gave up the lead in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot, and now trail the Angels by a half-game.
At 64-55 New York leads the NL East by 4.5 games over second-place Washington.
The Mets are now 3-0 against the O's this season.
Jimenez (9-7, 3.92) is nine-for-23 on quality starts this season, and only two for his last six. Last Friday he gave up four runs and nine hits through five innings against Oakland, and since the All-Star break he's been touched for 26 runs through 31 2/3 innings. For the season Jimenez has allowed 130 hits, including 15 ding-dongs, through 131 innings, walked 42 and struck out 122.
Baltimore is 12-11 in games Jimenez has started, with the totals going 10-11.
Jimenez has started against the Mets seven times in his career, but only once since 2011, back in May of this season, when he gave up three runs in four innings of a 5-1 Orioles loss.
Syndergaard (7-6, 3.07) is 11-for-17 on quality starts, and seven for his last nine. Last Thursday he held Colorado to three runs through seven innings, which was a good rebound effort after giving up five runs in four innings against Tampa five days previous. On the season Syndergaard has allowed fewer hits, 92, than innings pitched, 106, walked 24 and struck out 111 for a ratio of better than 4/1.
The Mets are 9-8 in Syndergaard's starts, with the totals skewing UNDER by a 10-5 margin.
This will be Syndergaard's first-ever start against Baltimore, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
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Wednesday's Batting Splits
New York ranks a dismal 29th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .238 team batting average, and 24th with a .303 team on-base percentage.
Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 14th against righties with a .253 team average and 19th with a .310 team OBP.
Ballparks Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are now 31-26 on the UNDERS this season, even though they're averaging 9.1 runs per, seventh-most among ML ballparks.
Mets-O's Wednesday Free Picks
We whiffed on Tuesday night's game, as the streak theory suffered a loss, and a key ninth-inning Baltimore error helped the game play OVER its total of 7.5 runs. All we can do is pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and look for winners today. We'll give Syndergaard the edge in tonight's pitching match-up, and in this spot that's enough to push us toward New York and the underdog price. Also, despite what happened last night, when four runs were scored in the ninth inning, we still hold both these bullpens in good regard. So we're thinking UNDER.
MLB Picks: Mets and UNDER 7.5 runs (+107) at Pinnacle