The Mets won game one of the series but find themselves as underdogs again for the second matchup tonight. Find out why we think the MLB odds value could be on Miami in this spot.
The Marlins are -110 favorites at a lot of the major sportsbooks we've checked over, with some sites offering a number as high as -120. We can find New York at even money to get another win tonight, with the total available at eight runs.
Tonight's starting pitchers will feature David Phelps, formerly with the New York Yankees, and Rafael Montero.
Miami Marlins (Phelps)
After a rough 3-11 start, the Marlins have recovered to win five of their last six, which means they'll take a 8-12 overall record into tonight's date with the Mets. Miami was able to right the ship thanks to a three-game sweep of the Nationals, but they then weren't able to carry that over into yesterday's meeting with the Mets.
It was a heartbreaker, however. The Marlins were up 1-0 heading into the top of the ninth but Steve Cishek gave up a three-run homer to Daniel Murphy and they went on to lose 3-1. Jarred Cosart had just wrapped up his finest outing of the season, allowing just two hits over eight innings of scoreless ball, but Cishek was unable to close the deal.
We'll next have David Phelps take the bump for Miami, and he's currently holding a 3.55 ERA through 12 and 2/3 innings of work. He shut down Philadelphia in his latest start, pitching seven innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits and striking out five. Phelps has looked strong over the last couple of weeks and should be feeling confident in his stuff heading into tonight.
New York Mets (Montero)
The Mets looked destined to lose 1-0 yesterday before Murphy's bomb, and with that win the team moved to 15-5 on the season. There's no doubt New York has been one of the pleasant surprises so far this season, with the team being led by a great pitching staff that's getting great outings from Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon among others.
There have been a lot of timely hits too, and so New York has been able to win a lot of close games already this season. And, in order to keep Matt Harvey fresh and not overwork him, the Mets are going to be prudent and extra careful by employing a six-man rotation, which will give Harvey an extra day of rest in between each start. Considering Harvey is one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, it's a smart move.
For tonight though, it'll be Rafael Montero on the bump, and he'll be making his first start of the 2015 campaign. Montero has been pitching out of the bullpen so far this season (4.15 ERA overall in only 4 and 1/3 innings), so we haven't yet gotten a large enough sample size to see if he can cut it this time around.
Not much separates these teams in our eyes, so we're going to go with the pitcher we trust more, and it certainly doesn't hurt that the Marlins will be at home once again.
We've really liked what we've seen out of Phelps in his latest two outings (just four hits and one run surrendered over 11.2 innings) and don't think he'll have much trouble settling in and keeping New York at bay. Meanwhile, this will be Montero's first start of the season, and we'd like to see how he fares before trusting him with our MLB picks.
With that said, we're going to be recommending Miami to even up the series here. We like the short MLB odds we see on the Marlins and believe they'll secure the W this evening.
MLB Pick: Miami Marlins -109 at The Greek