Mets vs. Marlins: Koehler Pitching at Home Makes Miami the Top of the Ticket Underdog Bet

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, August 3, 2015 1:36 PM GMT

The NY Mets visit the Miami Marlins for the first game of their early week set.  First pitch is slated for 7:10 ET at Marlins Park. Join us as we search for betting value & share our free pick.

NY Mets (Colon) (-115) vs. Miami Marlins (Koehler) 7:10 ET
The NY Mets visit the Miami Marlins for the first game of their early week set.  First pitch is slated for 7:10 ET at Marlins Park. The Mets travel to Miami, having just defeated Washington in a 3-game weekend set. Those victories pulled the Mets virtually even with Washington for the division lead. Can you spell LETDOWN? Miami salvaged the weekend set with San Diego with a 3R WOW homer in their 5-2 Sunday victory.  Consider that to be a big momentum boost for an also ran. As a result, we have a situation which greatly favors the Marlins.

The Mets are the epitome of good pitch/no hit. They sport a .661 pitching OPS (4th in MLB). But, their 30th and last .665 OPS batting numbers leave much to be desired. That plays out particularly on the road where they are just 17-32 (the fewest road wins in MLB). Tonight’s starter, the 42-year old, aging veteran, Colon, is not the answer! He is fading badly as the year continues. In his previous 7 trips to the mound, Colon is 0-6 with a 6.16 ERA. He pitched once against Miami this season, working 6 2/3 IP, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits in a 7-3 defeat. We want no part of Colon tonight, nor do we want anything to do with the Mets on the road, after the sweep of a division rival.

The Miami numbers are little better than the Mets in terms of hitting. Their pitching, however, has gotten a huge boost with the addition of Fernandez to the rotation. The bottom line, however, is that the Marlins sit at 43-63 with the 2ndworst record in MLB. But, the momentum of last night’s WOW and the pitching of Koehler are major positives. Though Koehler has been lit up twice by NY when pitching on the road, his work from this mound is far dichotomous to those performances. In 5 recent starts at home vs. the Mets, Koehler has a 1.91 ERA. For the season, the 8 starts by Koehler from this mound have been very solid, if not spectacular. Koehler has a 2.32 home ERA and more impressively a PLAY ON 1.03 home WHIP.

The Marlins home record is 7 games better than the Mets’ road record.  Combined with the great situational play described above, the horrendous work of Colon in his last 7 starts, and the great pitching of Koehler from this mound, we have a Top of the Ticket home dog MLB pick on the Miami Marlins.

MLB Pick: Take Miami Marlins