Mets vs. Braves: Expect A Low-scoring Affair And Pick 'Under'

Thursday, June 23, 2016 11:41 AM GMT

With two pitchers taking the mound today having ERA's over 4.00 you would think that MLB odds would set totals decently high. However, digging deeper we could a have a low-scoring game.

Mets vs. Braves
Odds makers have set the total for this game at 7.5 like at Pinnacle Sports -110. For my MLB pick I'm going to back under the total as both of these pitchers are a bit underrated in proportion to their statistics currently, as well as the fact that neither of these teams produce a lot of runs. Look for a low-scoring affair in Atlanta today with the Mets and Braves.

 

New York Mets
Matt Harvey comes in with a 4.76 ERA and 1.39 whip on the season with the New York Mets hitting just .233 as a team which ranks 29th in the major leagues. Harvey is much better than his current numbers indicate mostly due to the fact that he had such a poor start to this 2016 campaign. In his last start he got knocked around a little bit versus this same Braves team allowing four earned runs in six innings, however in his three previous starts he allowed a total of two earned runs over 20 innings versus the White Sox, Marlins, and Brewers.

Today he has a chance for bit of redemption against an Atlanta team that has been less than stellar at the plate this season. Offensively New York is one of the worst statistically in major league baseball ranking in the bottom three of all teams in runs per game, batting average, hits per game, and plate appearances. Their slugging is decent but for the most part this is not a team that scores a lot of runs. Behind Harvey is a really good bullpen as the Mets come in with a 3.11 ERA and batters hitting just .225 against them. Don't expect Atlanta to score much for MLB odds.

 

Atlanta Braves
Matt Wisler comes in with a 4.23 ERA and 1.18 whip with the Braves hitting .234 as a team which ranks 28th in the major leagues. Like Harvey, Wisler is better than his current numbers mostly because he had just a few bad starts out of his 13 appearances this season. Recently he had two rough outings against two of the better teams in the major leagues allowing 13 runs total over just eight innings versus the Dodgers and the Cubs. However, in four out of his last five starts at home he has allowed just 11 runs in 28 innings and today he gets the face one of the worst hitting teams in the National League.

At the plate Atlanta is the mirror image of the Mets but arguably even worse as they rank 29th in runs per game and dead last in the major leagues in slugging, OPS, and home runs per game. Also, they're facing a starting pitcher today in whom they've had little success the past couple times they've faced Harvey garnering just four earned runs in 14 innings off of nine hits. They still might have a shot to win the game though considering that Wisler held the New York Mets in check last time he faced them allowing zero earned runs off a one hit in eight innings.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 -110
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle