The biggest home/road dichotomy of the day is in Cincinnati Reds vs. NY Mets tonight which features an underdog price with notable edges in home/road numbers across the board.
Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) (-120) vs. NY Mets (Syndergaard) 7:10 ET
The Cincinnati Reds visit the NY Mets with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 ET at Citi Field. The Reds enter following a pair of wins at Pittsburgh to move their record to 34-37. The Mets avoided a 3-game sweep at Milwaukee with a 2-0 victory Thursday night behind the strong pitching of DeGrom. That is a building block for the Mets, who return to Citi Field where their 26-11 mark trails only St. Louis for home field excellence. Though the Reds won consecutive games in Pittsburgh, they are still just 14-23 away for the season and 5-14 away of late. Tonight’s pitchers, Cueto and Syndergaard, feature their own home/road dichotomies leaving us with a value home dog play on the Mets.
After a 9-18 slide, the Reds have rallied to win 6 of 8 with a .302 BA. But, their poor road record precedes them, as they enter a ballpark where visiting teams have had a tough time recording a win. Though tonight’s starting pitcher, Cueto, carries a big rep, there are chinks in the armor. In 7 road starts this season, Cueto is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA. Cueto has had his problems on this field, where in 5 starts, he has a 5.04 ERA. A further negative is that Cueto has been suffering from elbow stiffness for the last month. No guarantee that we see the best of Cueto tonight!
The Mets will be happy to return to Citi Field, leaving their 11-26 road record behind them. At Citi Field, the Mets are a reverse of that (26-11) with their 37-37 overall record, leaving them 3 ½ games behind Washington for the NL East lead. Tonight, they send rookie starter, Syndergaard, to the hill. Much like Cueto, his numbers have been less than inspiring while pitching on the road. At home, however, Syndergaard has made 4 starts with the Mets winning 3 of those. In those games, Syndergaard has a 2.13 ERA, a .226 BAA and a most impressive 0.99 home WHIP. That last number is too good to pass up in the home underdog role.
Rarely do we get this type of home/road dichotomy producing such value. The Reds are sub .500, as is their record in Cueto’s road starts. That makes an easy leap to back the Mets and Syndergaard, whose home numbers give us great value at this underdog price.
MLB Pick: Take NY Mets