Mets Pitching Advantage Too Great Not to Back

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, April 16, 2017 1:52 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 16, 2017 1:52 PM UTC

Our handicapper Mark Lathrop has had a great run of spot-on analysis of games this week. Read on as he breaks down this NL East matchup between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins on Sunday afternoon.

N.Y. Mets vs Miami Marlins 

The New York Mets look to get out of Miami with a push in their four-game series against the Marlins, as they are already down 2-1 after Saturday’s 5-4 loss. That was a tough luck loss for Met’s starter Jacob deGrom after he pitched seven innings of 2-run ball while striking out 13 Marlin batters. The win has Miami over .500 on the year at 6-5 while dropping the Mets to 7-5 at this early point in the season.

The Mets look to stop the bleeding by bringing Matt Harvey to the mound, who has won his first two starts of the season. There is a bit of caution to his quick start as he has faced expected NL East basement dwellers Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies in those two starts. But with what Harvey has control over he has controlled well. And by that I mean walks, where Harvey has only issued one free pass in his 12.1 innings pitched so far this year. He may be a bit wild in the strike zone though, as he has given up 3 bombs already, good for a small-sample-size special 27.3% HR/FB rate. Harvey has a career 8.3% HR/FB rate though, so I am taking those early results with a grain of salt. He’s been pounding the zone with regularity, and his early 2.92 ERA is more than acceptable.

Miami’s Dan Straily comes into this game 1-1 on the season after rebounding from his terrible opening start against Washington by beating lowly Atlanta. He’s only pitched 8.1 innings on the year and has left games early, so Miami’s bullpen should get some work in this game. The news on Straily is that he has picked up an extra 1 mph on his fastball this season, but that hasn’t led to the greatest of results. After all, he has seven earned runs in those 8.1 innings pitched on the season. He’s walking batters, not striking anyone out, and allowing hits. Not a winning combination.

Since the Marlins’ bullpen will likely come into play we should discuss how they’ve been doing so far this year. They’ve had to pitch the most innings of any team this season, and from an ERA perspective, they are doing fine compiling a 2.74 mark. They’ve given up their share of dingers though, with a 15.7% HR/FB rate. If anything, the Marlins bullpen is due for some serious regression. Miami’s relievers have put up an insane 93.3% strand rate on the season – a number that won’t continue for long.

I like the value that the Mets are getting here on the road with the moneyline sitting at just -133. Harvey is definitely the better pitcher here, and if Straily pitches well he has the risk of his bullpen blowing the game for him. I’m taking the Mets in this game on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks.


Free MLB Pick: Mets -133Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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