Mets vs. Cubs MLB Picks and Odds Analysis

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Mets vs. Cubs MLB Picks and Odds Analysis
Javier Baez #9 of the Chicago Cubs on April 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

The Mets will try to regroup after getting hammered by the Cubs in the second of a three-game set while Chicago goes for the series sweep. Let’s analyze this National League showdown and keep cashing our MLB picks.

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Thursday, April 22, 2021 – 7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field

The New York Mets had a tenuous hold on first place in the NL East but their grip got even more precarious after they were shellacked, 16-4, by the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Although the Mets held a 2-0 lead entering the fourth inning, it was hardly enough once the flood gates opened as the Cubs plated seven of their 16 runs in that inning. Francisco Lindor went deep early and Pete Alonso launched a two-run shot while J.D. Davis doubled in a run which comprised the Met’s offense on Wednesday.

"We're not trying to lose games," Lindor said. "We're working as hard as we can every single day to win ballgames. But we're gonna lose at least 50 games. If we win 112, that's impressive right there. At least, we're gonna lose 50. We understand that. We understand that we're gonna struggle. We're gonna have bad days, we're gonna have good days. The best baseball teams, they stay even-keeled."

And although the Mets have played the fewest number of games this season due to postponements, it should be noted they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game and are dead last by a wide margin in runs scored with only 42 on the year. Yet, they are getting on base as evidenced by their .331 OBP, placing them fourth in the majors in that category.

Cubs Bash Brigade

The Cubs have had a rather mercurial offense this season. We have seen games where their bats slumber for stretches but then they can turn on as quickly as a light switch and awake with a deafening roar as they did last night in scoring 16 runs, just four days after they ripped the Braves, 13-4.

Surprisingly, Chicago plated 10 runs last night without the aid of the longball until Javier Baez smashed a grand slam in the sixth inning off of reliever Trevor Hildenberger to increase the lead to 14-4. The Cubbies followed with two more in the eighth to secure their most dominating win of the season.

Chicago manager, David Ross, was naturally encouraged by his team’s 13 hit, 16 run barrage and stated after the game, "There were some balls well-hit even before that, a lot more of a line-drive approach I feel like, staying up the middle, and I think that's where you see the singles come from — a couple groundballs getting through there, just out of the reach of their infielders," he said. "Use the big part of the field and trusting and staying within your approach."

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The MLB Odds are showing the Mets as anywhere between a -110 to -120 road favorite in Thursday night’s final game of this three-game set. That’s a bit interesting considering Chicago has defeated them in the first two and outscored them 19-5 in both games combined.

But pitching matters so let’s see what we’ve got with the Mets’ southpaw starter, Joey Lucchesi (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) who went three innings in his last appearance, surrendering three runs on four hits in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies in Colorado. The 27-year-old saw little action last season, throwing only five-plus innings resulting in a 7.94 ERA but he will get another opportunity to showcase his wares tonight.

Chicago right-hander Trevor Williams (2-1, 5.02 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) looked sharp in his last appearance when he held the Braves to one run over five full innings of work in the Cubs’ 13-4 on Saturday and will look to make it two solid starts in a row.

David Peterson #77 of the New York Mets. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

As we analyze this matchup, I can’t help but think New York’s overtaxed relief corps that saw five relievers get roughed up after starter David Peterson was chased in the fourth inning will be knee-deep in the weeds if the Cubs get to Lucchesi early. Based on what we’ve seen from Lucchessi’s limited action over the past two seasons, that could easily happen.

Trevor Williams should follow up with another strong performance and those Cubs’ bats are on fire. Let’s watch Chicago sweep the Mets right out of Wrigley and get paid the juice to do it!

MLB Pick: Cubs +110 at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.