Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.
A pitcher that has pitched like the staff ace since coming over from the National League could key an upset by the road team Tuesday when Brandon McCarthy and those New York Yankees (68-61, 35-30 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers (70-59, 33-29 home) in the first game of a three-game interleague series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 7:08 ET.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has New York as a tiny underdog for this contest at current odds of +103.
On the Outside Looking In
If the season ended right now, both of these teams would be out of the playoffs, which would have been a shocking MLB pick as far as the Tigers are concerned as they were the heavy favorites to win the American League Central prior to the season and seemed to be ready to run away and hide when they acquired David Price at he trading deadline. Instead, they trail the Kansas City Royals by 1½ games in the division and are one-half game from a wild card.
The Yankees now trail the team the Tigers are chasing for the last wild card spot, the Seattle Mariners, by just 2½ games as they have picked the perfect time to go on a five-game winning streak with the fifth straight win coming vs. the Royals in Kansas City last night in a make-up of a rainout earlier in the season. The Yankees have been both hitting and pitching well during this win streak, which makes them a dangerous team right now.
McCarthy Now the Staff Ace?
McCarthy had just a 3-10 record with a 5.01 ERA and 1.38 WHIP when the Yankees acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks, but his sabremetric numbers were far outperforming his mainstream stats at the time and he has actually flourished with the Yankees despite pitching in a better hitting league. In fact, a strong case can be made that McCarthy has already become the ace of the Yankee staff!
You see, McCarthy is 5-2 with a sparkling 1.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP since coming over with an amazing ratio of 51 strikeouts vs. seven walks in 52 innings! He has allowed more than two earned runs in a game just once in his eight starts in pinstripes and he comes off of his best performance yet, a Complete Game four-hit shutout of the Houston Astros where he struck out eight and did not walk a single batter.
He has faced the Tigers once since coming to New York and he allowed just an unearned run on five hits in 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts at Yankee Stadium on August 4th in a 2-1 win over reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.
Yankees Offense Starting to Produce
Now Porcello is having his best season for Detroit since winning 14 games in his rookie year of 2009, as he is 14-8 with a career low until now in both ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.12). He also bounced back from a rough outing vs. the Mariners two starts back where he allowed six runs (five earned) on 10 hits in six innings by tossing a Complete Game shutout of his own last Wednesday, allowing three hits vs. the Tampa Bay Rays while striking out four and walking none.
However, the Yankees present more of a challenge in their current offensive state as they are batting .289 while averaging a whopping 6.14 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers during the five-game winning streak! Porcello did allow only one run in his only start vs. New York so far this season, but he didn’t exactly fool the Yankee batters while allowing nine hits in seven innings.
New York Bullpen Edge
And if the bullpens become involved here, the Yankees would appear to have a huge edge! The Yankees have posted a 2.70 bullpen ERA during the five-game win streak while the Detroit bullpen ERA is a hideous 6.93 during that same five-game span. Much like last season, the Tigers are ranked 28th in the Major Leagues with their 4.55 pen ERA overall.
Therefore, look for the Yankees to stay hot in Detroit on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Yankees +103