Maximize Your Profit With Thursday's Six-Pack Major League Plays

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, April 20, 2017 1:41 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, was stuck in a cross-country flight on Wednesday. Luckily for us he had WiFi on the plane and he has extra picks for us on this Thursday MLB card!

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Underdogs have cashed an impressive 61% of ATS tickets this year, and our handicapper spots two more games with value odds as we look at how to cash in on this early season trend.

 

Phillies vs Mets

Aaron Nola of the Phillies has used a 2-mph uptick on his fastball to pitch his best start of a season in his career. His ERA of 3.27 doesn’t indicate that he has been elite, but his 1.09 FIP (fielding independent pitching ERA) has. Even with Noah Syndergaard on the mound for the Mets, getting spotted a run at just -125 with Nola on the mound has tremendous value. I’ll take the road dog here in a pitching duel to keep this game close.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies +1.5 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Cardinals vs Brewers

On the other hand, Milwaukee doesn’t have the sharpest pitcher on the mound on Thursday, but they return home with great momentum after a highly successful road trip in Toronto, Cincinnati, and Chicago. They are 6-2 SU heading into Wednesday’s game (delayed as I write this). They face Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals who is 0-2 on the season, and even though his ERA doesn’t reflect disaster his walks and the Cardinal’s shuffling offense is enough to fade on the road while giving up runs. I’m taking Milwaukee at home +1.5 on the run line at reasonable -135 odds on Thursday.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +1.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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In continuing analysis, our handicapper identifies angles to wager on 3 more games on Thursday’s MLB card. One of them surprises even himself.

 

Nationals vs Braves

Atlanta had a five-game winning streak broken when Washington came into town on Tuesday, and the odds makers think that trend continues on Thursday with Stephen Strasburg taking the mound against R.A. Dickey. That’s great and all, but Strasburg has made three starts this year and only received a winning decision in one of them. Spotted a run at home, the Braves have some value here. And as a bit of a hedge with the knuckleballer on the mound, I will also be taking the Over of 7.5 runs in this game. One if not both of these wagers should cash easily on Thursday. I can’t believe I’m backing a knuckleballer, but numbers are numbers.

Free MLB Picks: Over 7.5 & Braves +1.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Royals vs Rangers

Kansas City’s Danny Duffy is 2-0 in early results this year with an ERA of 1.80. His FIP of 3.70 indicates that he is pitching a bit above his head, but against the mercurial Andrew Cashner of the Rangers he is definitely the pitcher to back in this matchup. Cashner has yet to give up a home run this year – a trend that will be broken in this start against the Royals. I’m taking the Royals on the moneyline at -107 as the value pick based on the starting pitchers alone.

Free MLB Pick: Royals -107Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Mariners vs Athletics

The line on this game is plain wrong. My write up of this game picking the Under explained that James Paxton has been in elite company since last August. His splits against Oakland are very favorable, and with him racking up an 8 inning, 114-pitch performance his last time out the Seattle bullpen won’t have much of a chance to screw this game up for him. Take Seattle on the moneyline at -155 at BetOnline early as this line is set to move towards Seattle.

Free MLB Pick: Mariners -155Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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