I’m back again to try and keep the streak alive. I have hit 83 percent of my MLB props so far this season, so follow along and tail these two premium selections for the Friday night slate.
Tanner Roark O/U 5 ½ strikeouts
Tanner Roark has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals this season. He owns a sub-three ERA and is 7-5 with a 1.22 WHIP across 16 starts this season. He is giving them more than they could have ever asked for, and I think he is going to give the Reds more than they ask for tonight.
Roark has been a strikeout machine this season compared to years past. In 2015 he has a K/9 rate of 5.68, and he has upped that to 7.98 this season. He has also been striking guys out with great efficiency this season. He has five starts with at least seven strikeouts, and he has an above average strikeout rate of 21.5 percent this season.
Tonight he gets the Cincinnati Reds, a team that is no stranger to striking out. The Reds rank 24th in strikeout rate this season at 22.8 percent against righties, and they have one of the worst wOBA ranks of any team against right-handed pitching. Roark’s improved strikeout rates make him an interesting play tonight at only 5 ½ strikeouts. He is averaging just under a strikeout per inning, so as long as he can get one per half inning of work, and as long as he goes six innings or more in this one, the Reds are going to swing and miss enough tonight where six or more strikeouts is likely for Roark.
Free MLB Pick: OVER 5 ½ (-110)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Buster Posey – Runs, hits and RBI’s
The matchup between the D-backs vs Giants tonight is a good one, but Buster Posey heading out to a hitter’s park in Chase Field is way too much to ignore tonight. The MLB Odds here are quite something. I really wanted to play Posey to hit a home run tonight at nearly 5/1 at Bovada, but I am playing it safer and going with his matchup against Paul Goldschmidt.
The Giants are starting Johnny Cueto tonight, who is a much tougher matchup for Goldschmidt, especially when you consider that Posey only has to deal with Shelby Miller. Miller has been destroyed at Chase Field this season. He has a .235 isolated power and hitters have a wOBA over .400 against him when he pitches at home.
Compare those numbers to what Goldschmidt has to face tonight and this one is a no-brainer considering both hitters are at -115 in this prop. Cueto against righties this season has a wOBA of just .236 and a BABIP of just .257.
Posey, on the other hand, loves going on the road. Six of his nine homers have come on the road this season, and in his career across 182 at-bats, Posey is hitting a massive .346 at Chase Field with 10 doubles, eight home runs and 38 RBI’s. This guy is going to have at least two hits tonight against Miller, and he is easily the play over Goldschmidt, who has a much tougher pitching matchup tonight.He is a strong MLB Pick. for tonight.
Free MLB Pick: Buster Posey -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada