Maximize Profit by Betting Run-Line for Phillies/Cardinals Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

Before placing your MLB picks for Phillies vs. Cardinals today, understand that St. Louis have a huge home/road dichotomy, along with a major pitching advantage and bullpen edge.  

Philadelphia Phillies (Gonzalez) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) (-1 ½ R/+110) 8:15 ET
Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals meet in the second of this 4-game, early week set.  The Phillies won (4-1) Monday night behind the strong start by Cole Hamels, who pitched 7-innings of one-run ball, allowing just 4 hits.  Look for the Cards to even this up in style and back them with your MLB picks today.

The Phillies won yesterday and lifted their road record to just 2-6.  This is a team who is just 2-5 following a victory.  They are also MLB’s worst hitting team, averaging just 2.7 RPG.  Tonight, they send rookie, Severino Gonzalez to the hill for his MLB debut.  Pitching at Triple-A, Lehigh, Gonzalez has made 3 starts with a mediocre 3.75 ERA.  He does not figure to be a savior for a Philadelphia rotation.  

The Cards enter off consecutive losses after learning that staff ace, Adam Wainwright, would be lost for the season with Achilles surgery.  Even following last night’s defeat, the Cards are still the most resilient team in baseball with a record of 96-61 following a defeat L2+Y, including 3-2 in that role this season.  In addition, St. Louis is on a run of 38-16 on this field, including 5-2 this season.  23 year old, Michael Wacha now has the opportunity to elevate himself to staff ace in that absence of Wainwright.  To date, Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA.  He has pitched 7 or more innings in all 3 starts, allowing 1 or less run in each of those games.  

The fact that Philadelphia is projected to be the worst team in MLB this season is playing to form.  Averaging less than 3 RPG, 10 of 12 losses for this team have come by 2 or more runs, including 5 of 6 on the road.  St. Louis with strong pitching continues to pile up victories with 11 of their 12 wins coming by 2 or more runs.  In my recently published article on Bullpen Relief Indexes, we must note that the St. Louis’ index of 168 virtually guarantees the Phillies will be shut out in the late innings to preserve the St. Louis victory.  Lay the runs and take the short price in MLB odds for a resounding St. Louis bounce back victory tonight.  

MLB Picks: Take St. Louis Cardinals at YouWager

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