Massive Slugfest Predicted In Rockies vs. Red Sox Makes Great 'Over' MLB Pick

Thursday, May 26, 2016 5:40 PM GMT

Two superior lineups against starters that have major question marks in a hitters friendly ballpark is a profile not to overthink. Let's study the odds and determine what the right MLB pick is.

Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox look to finish off the series sweep tonight of the Colorado Rockies. The first two games have been blowouts with the Red Sox  winning both and the total runs scored at 24. Tonight’s starters have both had issues to this point in the season and have struggled immensely against the more talented lineups. A few metrics point to runs coming in bunches tonight in Fenway, not to mention two superior lineups against starters that have major question marks in a hitters friendly ballpark is a profile not to overthink.

 

Boston Red Sox
Major League Baseball’s hottest hitting team is without question the Boston Red Sox. With a team OPS of over .900 the last week and even more impressive they have posted a .915 team OPS the last month. The Red Sox also have just a shade lower than .300 team batting average for the entire season to date.

Jackie Bradley Jr. went 2-for-4 on Wednesday to extend his hitting streak to 29 games and Xander Bogaerts pushed his own streak to 18 straight games with a homer in the fourth as Boston breezed to a 10-3 victory. The Red Sox have scored eight or more runs 10 times in the last 14 home games and piled up 18 in the first two games of the series against Colorado in MLB odds.

 

 

Colorado Rockies
The Colorado lineup has been in a bit of a funk lately, but ultimately is one of the most talented lineups in all of baseball. The matchup against Clay Buchholz could be the below average right handed arm this Rockies lineup needs to spark a resurgence in run production. Buchholz could be pitching for his spot in the rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez (knee) nearing a return from the disabled list. Buchholz posted a quality start in just three of his first nine outings and was knocked around for four runs, three earned on five hits and four walks over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Friday.

He’s had a tough season and has been very hittable with a 5.66 ERA at Fenway Park which is about in line with his FIP and xFIP. Buchholz has allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings of work and should be a cure for this ailing Rockies lineup. Boston is 6-1 here at home in their last 7 games but the lone Fenway loss during this span came with Buchholz on the mound against Cleveland. In five of his nine starts Buchholz has allowed at least five runs and four times this season, Buchholz has given up at least four runs in one inning.

 

Conclusions
Colorado's pitching staff allowed a total of 24 runs in the last three games, tonight the young righty Jon Gray tries to buck the trend, although he gave up nine runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. I doubt Gray is able to go deep into this game against the best lineup in baseball. My numbers project both of these lineups to be able to put up big numbers against the opposing pitchers, pointing us to an over bet in the historically hitters haven Fenway Park as your MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9
Best Line Offered: at Bovada