Massive Slugfest Forecasted In Giants vs. Reds Makes Great 'Over' MLB Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 6:07 PM GMT

Giants and Reds went easily ‘over’ in the first game of this series from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park Monday, and we see no reason why this MLB pick should be different.

 

MLB Record: 14-15-1, +1.04

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Expect yet another ‘over’ Tuesday night similar to the series opener last night when Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants (14-13, 6-7 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Jon Moscot and the Cincinnati Reds (10-16, 8-6 home) as this three-game series continues from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Ohio. The posted total at Bookmaker is 9 for this contest with the current MLB odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.

 

Cueto Faltered vs. Former Mates
Much of the hoopla last night centered around the big free agent signing by the Giants, Johnny Cueto, returning to his old stomping grounds but the Reds did not greet him fondly while scoring six runs in the third inning. Luckily for the Giants they were able to rally late vs. the dreadful Cincinnati bullpen for the 9-6 win, leaving San Francisco in first place in the National League West one-half game ahead of Los Angeles and one game ahead of Colorado.

The Reds were once 9-9 but they have been the losing MLB picks in seven of their eight games since then to drop to 10-16, so maybe Cincinnati is not really that much improved over the team that finished 64-98 last season and just one game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the worst record in baseball. It does not help that the Reds currently have one of the worst bullpens we have ever seen.

 

Most Runs Allowed in Major Leagues
The Reds have allowed the most runs in the Major Leagues while ranking second to last in team ERA at 5.50, although to be fair the bullpen has been considerably worse than the starters lately. Unfortunately that has not really been true for tonight’s starter Moscot, as he has yet to go as long as six innings in his three starts so far while posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and owning a hideous command ratio with only six strikeouts vs. nine walks in 15.2 innings!

Furthermore, Moscot is lucky that his ERA has not gone through the roof as he has benefitted from allowing a ridiculously low .170 BABIP, helping lead to an ugly 7.54 FIP and 5.78 xFIP that are truer measures of his ability, or lack thereof. On top of all that, Moscot is taking this start despite dealing with some shoulder stiffness. Thus, you could just about count on an early call to the bullpen again tonight, and that is never a good thing for the Reds these days.

You see, the Cincinnati pen is dead last in the majors by a fairly wide margin with a 6.54 ERA while also owning a 1.61 WHIP and yielding a .365 on-base percentage. This pen is historically bad right now at all three levels, and it does not have a determined closer at this point with J.J. Hoover pulled from that role as he has a 13.97 ERA in 11 appearances!

 

Roughed Up by Padres
Like Cueto last night, Samardzija was also signed by the Giants as a free agent this past off-season to help bolster the starting rotation, and those two additions were a key reason why San Francisco was the preseason favorite to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers as National League West Champions. “Shark” has had a decent start to his Giant career at 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but that ERA has been going up a bit lately.

Most recently he was hit hard by the normally light-hitting San Diego Padres for five earned runs in 5.2 innings last Wednesday, and that was back in pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Now Samardzija is pitching in a pronounced hitter’s park in Cincinnati, and he has not fared well vs. the Reds over his career going 1-5 with a 4.30 ERA against them over 24 appearances (10 starts).

And do not forget that the San Francisco bullpen has not exactly been setting the world on fire either, ranking 21st in the majors with a 4.20 ERA.

 

Two Good ‘over’ Teams
Finally, the ‘over’ last night continued a pattern that has seen both of these teams be ‘over’ friendly this season, as it is now 15-9 in all Reds’ games, thanks to playing their home games at Great American Ball Park where their contests have averaged a combined 10.00 runs, as well as 17-10 in all Giants’ games with their road contests averaging a whopping 10.38 runs!

With Samardzija off of his good form right now, Moscot fighting through shoulder pain and two bad bullpens, especially for the Reds, look for those ‘over’ patterns to continue when San Francisco continues its series at Cincinnati on Tuesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9
Best Line Offered: at Heritage