Marlins' Stanton Leads Home Run Title Futures Opening Odds

Monday, January 16, 2017 3:11 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 16, 2017 3:11 PM UTC

It's never too early to start thinking baseball! Let’s look at the opening odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on the MLB Home Run Futures marketplace and try to find for a plump-looking October payout with three long-shot picks.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Sets 2017 MLB Home Run Futures

Like last year, Giancarlo Stanton of the Florida Marlins is the opening odds-on favorite at 3/1 with last year’s winner, Chris Davis (47 HRs) of the Baltimore Orioles co-second favorite at 15/1.

Three local Las Vegas high school players now plying their wares in MLB grace the list with Bonanza’s Kris Bryant (Cubs, 20/1), Las Vegas’s Bryce Harper (Nationals, 20/1) and Sierra Vista’s Chris Carter (free agent, 80/1), so the winner of this bet actually could hail from Sin City yet still be unable to hit a baseball over the 375-foot-tall (30 stories) Westgate itself.

As you can see above, the winner of this niche Futures Book bet for the L7 years -- which is honestly very hard to hit -- has been a right-handed hitter from the American League with the last three having been Orioles. And with the AL having the DH and the NL using a spot in the lineup for a pitcher, leaning toward the AL is always a wise mathematical start if betting with your head and not your heart in this particular market. But if there’s an MLB Futures Book wager to just have some crap-shoot fun in and bet with your heart, this is it. The 2017 World Series begins mid-October.

Giancarlo Stanton 8/1

Chris Davis 15/1

Nolan Arenado 15/1

Manny Machado 15/1

Mike Trout 20/1

Josh Donaldson 20/1

Kris Bryant 20/1

Miguel Sanó 20/1

Kyle Schwarber 20/1

Bryce Harper 20/1

Nelson Cruz 30/1

Mark Trumbo 30/1

Field 30/1

Miguel Cabrera 40/1

Edwin Encarnación 40/1

Anthony Rizzo 40/1

Todd Frazier 40/1

Russ Springer 40/1

Trevor Story 40/1

George Springer 40/1

Paul Goldschmidt 40/1

Rougned Odor 50/1

Carlos González 60/1

José Bautista 60/1

José Abreu 60/1

Yoenis Céspedes 60/1

JD Martinez 60/1

Justin Upton 60/1

Adam Duvall 60/1

Mookie Betts 60/1

Chris Carter 80/1

Evan Longoria 80/1

Khris Davis 80/1

Corey Seager 80/1

Ian Desmond 80/1

Aaron Judge 80/1

Adrián Beltré 80/1

Carlos Correa 80/1

Freddie Freeman 80/1

Ian Desmond 80/1

Albert Pujols 100/1

Tommy Joseph 100/1

Troy Tulowitzki 100/1

Eric Thames 100/1

Adam Jones 100/1

Maikel Franco 100/1

Carlos Santana 100/1

Hanley Ramírez 100/1

Jay Bruce 100/1

Joey Votto 100/1

Lucas Duda 100/1

Ryan Braun 100/1

Robinson Cano 100/1

Adrian Gonzalez 100/1

Joc Pederson 100/1

Matt Holliday 100/1

Will Myers 100/1

Andrew McCutchen 100/1

Kendrys Morales 100/1

Eric Hosmer 100/1

Marcell Ozuna 100/1

Corey Dickerson 100/1

Yasiel Puig 100/1

Charlie Blackmon 100/1

Nomar Mazara 100/1

Justin Turner 100/1

Stephen Piscotty 100/1

Justin Bour 100/1

Jorge Soler 100/1

David Dahl 100/1

Buster Posey 100/1

Xander Bogaerts 100/1

Eugenio Suárez 100/1
Addison Russell 100/1

Yasmany Tomás 100/1

Mitch Moreland 100/1

Brad Miller 100/1

Mike Napoli 100/1

Ian Kinsler 200/1

Nick Castellanos 200/1

Evan Gattis 200/1


Last Year’s Notes Reveal Much

The noticeable thing about this market, besides the many first-time choices, is that in the the past 23 seasons, 18 winners have been right-handed hitters (78.3%), with last year’s winner Trumbo (47 HRs) the 8th straight right-handed hitting winner and the 7th in a row from the AL. So will form hold in 2017?

One interesting tidbit from the notes from the last assignment -- an updated look at this market -- from last season showed eventual winner Trumbo to be as high as 50/1 at Ladbrokes and William Hill well into the season, proving there is indeed value to be had if found correctly and that the dude leading early on (Harper last season) doesn’t necessarily win it. Out of all the professional sports, MLB has the longest and most grueling regular season with 162 games lasting from early April until Oct. 1 this campaign.

A hitter with a long, looping swing who seems to go for the dinger often is the Cubs’ Bryant, and the 25-year-old local reigning NL MVP has to be one of the solid picks here with those lofty 20/1 odds. Little did I know 10 years or so ago two barely-teens on a local club team (Southern Nevada Bulldogs) I was writing about would soon be bashing homers in the Big Leagues. Bryant and the Cubs (4/1 to win World Series, Bovada) are in St. Louis on Sunday, April 2, to face the Cardinals in the MLB season opener (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET).

Another slugger worth a look is Edwin Encarnación (42 HRs in 2016), who left Toronto in the offseason and signed with the defending AL champion Cleveland Indians (11/1 to win World Series, BetOnline). He is a right-handed hitter with the boom in his bat, and will be trying to impress hs new employer and, at 40/1, seems to have some perceived value.

LONGSHOT VALUE PICKS: Bryant, Cubs 20/1, Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays 20/1, Encarnación 40/1.

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