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Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits an RBI against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on Aug. 26.
Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits an RBI against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on Aug. 26. Photo by Rich Schultz / Getty Images via AFP

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to keep up their winning ways at home after a walk-off win against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night. Here are our Marlins vs. Phillies MLB picks for Wednesday night.

The Phillies returned home to the City of Brotherly Love on Tuesday after a brutal road trip. They went 1-5 out West and walked off the Marlins on Tuesday night for a 3-2 win.

The Marlins continue to struggle. They’ve scored two runs or fewer in nine straight games, losing the last eight.

There is some rain in the forecast in Philadelphia but it should clear up before game time.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Marlins vs. Phillies game (odds via BetMGM, BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Marlins vs. Phillies Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, Sept. 7th, 6:45 p.m. ET
TV: BSFL, NBCSP
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Weather: 73 degrees, 23% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds blowing in

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds Analysis

The Phillies are all the way down to -160 (BetMGM) after opening at -180 despite receiving nearly three-quarters of the action. The Marlins opened at +150 and are still available at that number at BetRivers.

The total opened at 8 but has shifted down to 7.5 at nearly all books across the board.

Marlins vs. Phillies Projected Pitchers

Trevor Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs. Bailey Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)

Trevor Rogers has rarely been able to go deep into games for the Marlins. In fact, his last start may have been his best in some time when he allowed one run in six innings to the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Marlins only scored one run and ended up losing. Miami has lost Rogers’ last five starts and is 5-15 in his 20 starts this season.

Philadelphia has done the opposite for Bailey Falter. The Phillies are 8-2 in his 10 starts (4-1 at home) and have won his last four outings. Falter has turned a corner since July 29. He’s thrown a quality start in each of his last four outings.

Marlins vs. Phillies Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.  

Marlins vs. Phillies Moneyline Pick

Phillies (-160) ★★★★★

The line keeps moving down for the Phillies and I’m not sure why. The Marlins’ offense is pitiful as shown by their 13 runs in the last nine games. Rogers likely won’t be able to hold the Phillies to two runs or fewer as Jesus Luzardo did last night. Rogers has allowed 15 runs in 11.1 innings against the Phillies this season.

Falter has picked up steam as the season has moved along and he should be able to put up another strong outing against Miami. Take the Phillies at -160 and run.

Marlins vs. Phillies O/U Pick

Under 7.5 (-103) ★★★★

The Marlins can’t score right now and the Phillies’ offense isn’t that hot either. They’ve only scored 11 runs in their last four games after an 18-run outburst in Arizona. 

The Under is 9-5 in 14 matchups this season, including 1-6 in Philadelphia. It’s going to be a chilly night with the wind blowing in at the ballpark. Even if the Phillies score four or five, the Marlins shouldn’t get more than a run or two.

Marlins vs. Phillies Prop Pick

Hoskins Over 1.5 total bases (+125) ★★★

Rhys Hoskins is batting .304 against left-handed pitching this season with 19 extra-base hits in 150 plate appearances. That’s opposed to .230 vs. RHP with 35 XBH in 421 plate appearances. 

The Phillies first baseman hasn’t been too hot as of late but he’s going up against a pitcher he hits well against. Hoskins is hitting .438 with a slugging percentage over 1.00 (1.063) against Rogers with three home runs and a double in 19 plate appearances.

Hoskins hits in the top of the Phillies’ order and should get at least four at-bats. I’ll take the +125 given his history against Rogers and LHP in general.

Where to Bet on Marlins-Phillies Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Marlins-Phillies picks made on 9/7/2022 at 12:16 p.m. ET.