Mariners vs. Yankees MLB Picks: Play Bronx Bombers -141 & Go 'Under'

Darin Zank

Saturday, July 18, 2015 10:22 AM GMT

The Yanks got to a good start with victory over Seattle last night, but to this handicapper's chagrin they also came short against the run line. How are we betting Saturday's match-up?

M's-Yanks Saturday Betting Odds
As of early Saturday AM the best price we could find on New York with Michael Pineda was the -141 offered at Pinnacle, while Seattle and Hisashi Iwakuma were getting +137 at 5Dimes. And most of today's MLB betting market was offering a total of eight runs on this game, although there were a few 7.5's out there.

 

The Situation
New York took Game 1 of this series Friday night 4-3 on an Alex Rodriguez solo homer in the bottom of the seventh inning, squeaking out a victory as a -165 betting favorite.

We split on our picks on Friday's game; the Yanks failed to cover against the run line, but the UNDER came in.

So New York, with eight wins in its last 11 games, is 49-40 and leads the AL East by a season-high 4.5 games over Tampa and Toronto.

Meanwhile, Seattle has lost five of its last eight games, and at 41-49 now sits eight games back of the nearest playoff spot.

The Yanks now lead this season series four games to none.

 

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up
Pineda (9-5, 3.64) is 10-for-17 on quality starts this season, running on a streak of three in a row. Eight days ago he held Boston to one run through 6 2/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just three earned runs through 21 2/3 innings. On the season Pineda has allowed more hits, 115, than innings pitched, 106, but his strikeouts/walks ratio is super, at 111/13; New York is 11-6 in Pineda's starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 9-6 margin.

In his only career start against his former team, back on June 1, Pineda held the Mariners to two runs and seven hits, whiffing nine, through six innings of a 7-2 Yankees victory.

Iwakuma (1-4, 5.22), who will be making his third start since doing 10 weeks on the DL, is just one-for-five on quality starts this season, but coming off easily his best effort so far, after tossing eight innings of three-hit, shutout ball against the Angels last Saturday. On the season 'Kuma has allowed 31 hits, including nine homers, in 29 1/3 innings; Seattle is 1-4 in Iwakuma's starts, with the OVERS going 4-1.

Last year Iwakuma started once against the Yankees, allowing three runs and seven hits through 7 1/3 innings of a 3-2 M's loss.

 

Saturday's Batting Splits
Seattle ranks dead last in the Majors right now against right-handed pitching with a dismal .230 team batting average, and 28th with a .295 team on-base percentage.

New York, meanwhile, ranks 10th against righties with a .258 average and ninth in OBP at .323.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 23-15 on the OVERS, averaging 10.1 runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks. But that lean might be in the process of trending back toward normalcy, considering the UNDERS are 4-2-1 in the last seven Yankees home games.

Must Read: Has Baseball Become an Over or Under Game?

Saturday's Free MLB Picks
We give Pineda the check mark in the pitching match-up, and the Yanks own an edge with the sticks. We like New York today. Also, we backed the UNDER Friday in part because Seattle is so inept against RH pitching, and we're thinking along the same lines here.

MLB Picks: Yankees -141 at Pinnacle and UNDER 7.5 runs (+105) at Heritage