Mariners vs. Twins to Go 'Over' Despite Veteran Pitchers on the Mound

Charles Stark

Sunday, August 2, 2015 1:01 AM GMT

Today's opposite play of the day will be on the Over when the Seattle Mariners take on the Minnesota Twins. In this case the line looks really off so we side with the oddsmakers and go that way.

Odds
For some reason, oddsmakers have come out with this game on the total at 8.5, and that's where the higher juice is as well, talk about not making sense. The line is at -120 for the over at most sportsbooks, but you can get it at -117 MLB odds at Pinnacle. That 8.5 though just looks way too high in my opinion, so we will apply the opposite play of the day. This game today gets my radar up and makes no sense as this total looks way too high with these two veteran pitchers.

 

Pitching Matchup
For the Mariners, Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound with a 5.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, so you might be saying hold on, I thought this was the opposite play of the day and an ERA over five seems like the total is right... wrong. We are talking about a guy with a career 3.24 ERA who has just came back from injury and just had a couple of bad outings. In his last time on the mound he had a rough start allowing six earned runs in five innings to the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks, but the three games prior to that he allowed four earned runs over 20 innings against the Angels, Yankees, and Tigers. So in short, he just got done facing four of the best hitting teams in the major leagues and he is coming in on a bounce back situation.

Now the line gets a little bit interesting. On the mound for Minnesota is Mike Pelfrey, who comes in with a 3.92 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, and again, you might think that those are good numbers for this high of a total... again, nope. After getting roughed up five games ago, in his last four games Pelfrey has only given up 11 earned runs total, and at home this year he has been excellent with a 2.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He arguably has been Minnesota's best pitcher at home.

 

At the Plate
What we have in Minnesota and Seattle are two subpar offensive teams with a lean going to the Twins in most categories, but nothing to shout to the rooftops. Minnesota ranks 11th in the major leagues in runs scored per game and the Mariners 26th. In OPS they both rank in the bottom part of the league, with Minnesota ranked 18th and Seattle 22nd. We see similar rankings in batting average as well, with the Twins ranked 14th and the Mariners ranked 26th. Overall, neither of these teams is an elite hitting team, which again brings into question why is this total so high?

In this year of the pitcher, and two subpar offenses, I will maintain my argument that this line does not make sense. So for us this is a perfect spot to apply the opposite play of the day and side with the oddsmakers on the over and see both of these teams have a surprisingly solid day at the plate.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+100) at The Greek

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