Mariners vs Phillies: MLB Odds Analysis & Free Pick

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 10, 2017 12:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 10, 2017 12:55 PM UTC

A great advantage for the Mariners lineup has our handicapper looking to back them against the overpowered Phillies, but as the Seattle's bullpen can still not be trusted he is looking at a specific angle as he makes another Wednesday MLB Pick.

The Mariners have lost 3/5ths of their rotation to start the year, but Yovanni Gallardo isn’t one of them, and he hopes to keep Seattle’s pace towards .500 going on the road in this interleague start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Opening odds have the Mariners as -114 moneyline favorites at Pinnacle, while the O/U total has opened at 8.5 runs across the board.

Gallardo has been one of Seattle’s most consistent starters over the last few weeks, putting up a 2.95 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last three games and 18.3 innings pitched. His success has come hand in hand with finding his control, with an 8/0 K/BB rate to go with his last three starts. He hasn’t allowed a home run in that span either and his 6.5% HR/FB rate on the season is excellent. Gallardo is just 1-3 on the season, but his 3.29 FIP indicates he is pitching much better than his record suggests.

Gallardo will go up against Zach Eflin of the Phillies in this game. I’ve been high on Eflin because he is tough on left-handers on the year, but his advanced stats indicate he is relying on smoke and mirrors somewhat for his success. Although if you look at it, starting 4 times and not picking up a decision is a backhanded compliment and suggestion of “success”. Eflin is carrying a 4.27 FIP right now against a 2.42 ERA. Some of this is due to the fact that he is carrying a .198 BABIP, which is about 80 points below what he has ever been able to put up over extended innings pitched in the minor leagues. That will eventually normalize and this is as good a spot as any to wager that will occur.

The Mariners will be able to bring a lot of right-handers to the lineup to counter Eflin’s weakness as well, as he has put up a .268 batting average against that side of the plate. Look for Danny Valencia and Taylor Motter – newcomers to the M’s lineup – to be able to have some success in this game should they start. Which they should, given the options on the table for Mariners manager, Scott Servais. The M’s lineup has a huge advantage over Philadelphia’s in depth and past success even without these matchup advantages.

The big variable in this game will be the bullpens, especially with the M’s currently being decimated by injury right now. For that reason, I am looking at the first five inning line only. I will be taking the Mariners in the first 5 innings on the moneyline when that line comes out as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks

Free MLB Pick: Seattle 1h MLBest Line Offered: *No Lines Available At Press Time*
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