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Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners pitches during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers as we look at our Mariners-Padres pick.
Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners pitches during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

There's an intriguing pitching clash on the west coast Tuesday night. Let's examine the matchup with our Mariners-Padres pick based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres share a lot in common as the 2023 season progresses into June.

Both clubs have fallen far below expectations. Both clubs have the unfortunate luck of being in a division that a dominant team leads (or teams, in the case of the NL West). And both are below .500, with the Mariners at 29-30, and the Padres at 28-32.

But there's time to rebound, and each squad will aim to do it on Tuesday with its ace on the mound in a premier pitching matchup between Joe Musgrove and Logan Gilbert.

Here is our best Mariners-Padres pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our 2023 MLB Cy Young Odds.

Mariners vs. Padres pick

Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Logan Gilbert is basically a giant long-limbed tree that throws baseballs stupidly hard and with lots of spin. He's fallen on hard times recently with the long ball while giving up four homers over his past three starts, and eight overall across 11 outings in 2023. That's contributed to his ERA increase, which sits at 4.08 so far this campaign after a much lower 3.20 in 2022.

But we care less about how many runs he surrenders on Tuesday night, and much more about his method of getting outs. And often that's been through a punchout, as Gilbert is averaging 10.3 K/9 in 2023, up substantially from 8.4 in 2022. His walk rate is down too (from 2.4 to 1.5).

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The righty is now getting an invitingly low strikeout total on Tuesday night against the Padres, a team that's struck out the 10th-most times in MLB so far in 2023 (535).

All of our best sports betting sites are asking Gilbert to clear 5.5 strikeouts to cash the Over, a mark he's hit a whopping nine times already. That run includes 10 strikeouts against the Texas Rangers and their behemoth offense that's more mid-pack in the category (they currently rank 16th).

There's a lot to like already about a strikeout-centric pitcher whose production is up in that regard in 2023, and he's facing a whiff-prone San Diego offense. But the price is what really sells this play.

Ballpark Pal is pricing Gilbert at -172 for Over 5.5 strikeouts, which is significantly shorter than all the offerings from our best sportsbooks, and especially FanDuel. Elsewhere, NumberFire is projecting Gilbert to finish with 5.58 strikeouts.

Combine that projection with the bargain price, a pitcher whose strikeouts are climbing, and a punchout-happy opponent, and Gilbert is highly appealing on Tuesday.

Check out our 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds.

Mariners vs. Padres best odds

FanDuel (-110)

Over 5.5Over 5.5Over 5.5Over 5.5Over 5.5

All five of our best live betting sites are offering a price longer than the one Ballpark Pal is featuring. However, there's a canyon between the likes of FanDuel and DraftKings, and what Caesars is posting. Stay far clear of that book.

If you're feeling confident after Gilbert's recent performances and want to take an alternative line, FanDuel's price of +190 for Over 6.5 strikeouts is still well longer than Ballpark Pal at +112.

Check out our MLB MVP odds.

Mariners vs. Padres odds

Check out our World Series odds.

Mariners vs. Padres odds analysis

The Padres are favored across the board at generally around -135. The line opened at -130, and it's dropped to -140 through some books, including PointsBet.

Meanwhile, the total sits at 7.5 universally for this matchup involving two quality pitchers, and it hasn't budged since opening. The Under is widely being offered at -105, with FanDuel the only exception at -110. However, FanDuel is the place to take the Over, and it's the only sportsbook at -110.

Mariners vs. Padres game info

  • Date: Tuesday, June 6, 9:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: MLB.TV
  • Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
  • Weather: 64 degress, 30% chance of precipitation, 7-mph westerly winds

Mariners-Padres pick made 6/6/2023 at 3:20 p.m. ET.

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