We have a great pitching matchup for our upset play of the day when the Seattle Mariners take on the Los Angeles Angels. With Felix Hernandez on the mound for the Mariners it is natural that they are the favorite in this game but I like the Angels to pull the upset on the small plus money line.
MLB odds makers have come out with this game making the Mariners the favorite at about -118. The Angels are +108 at most sportsbooks but at Pinnacle you can get them at +109. For me this is good value on a decent team in the Angels with arguably their best pitcher on the mound.
This should be a good one today with Felix Hernandez taking the mound for the Mariners and Hector Santiago taking the mound for the Angels. Hernandez has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the major leagues these past 10 years and comes in with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He has been really hot and cold this year and has been less than stellar on the road with a 3.86 ERA. Also, in his last five games he gave up seven runs on one occasion and eight runs another, and this will be the third time the Angels have seen him this season. Santiago comes in with a 2.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He has only had one bad outing this year where he gave up five runs in five innings against Tampa Bay, besides that he has been extremely tough. In his last outing he gave up one earned run off a two hits in six innings against the Houston Astros, this same Astros team was the team that scored eight runs in just an inning off of Hernandez.
At the Plate
Neither of these teams have been particularly outstanding at the plate so far this season. Both teams rank from the middle to lower part of the league in most offensive categories. But the Angels rank higher than the Mariners across the board. The Angels rank 23rd in runs scored, the Mariners 29th. The Angels ranked 24th in batting average, the Mariners dead last ranked 30th. Finally, in on base plus slugging percentage the Angels rank 22nd and the Mariners 27th. There really isn't a huge disparity but the Mariners have been particularly poorer out of the two teams this season.
By the time this game starts I expect this line to definitely move to making the Angels close to a pick. If you get this game at plus money I recommend taking it because it's good value on the better team with a very good pitcher on the mound. Don't let Felix scare you off & back the Angels with confidence.
MLB Pick: Angels +105 at 5Dimes