Mariners to Enjoy Home Cooking Against Detroit Monday, June 19

sam gaviglio mariners

Mark Lathrop

Monday, June 19, 2017 4:09 PM GMT

Detroit calls up Anibal Sanchez from Triple-A to try to stop the Mariners' run of success at home Monday. Our MLB handicapper finds more than a few angles to profit from this matchup with Seattle's hot offense.

2017 MLB Record: 113-95-7 (+8.71 Units, 3.56% ROI)

Detroit Tigers At Seattle Mariners

The Tigers start a west coast road trip Monday evening in Seattle, as the Mariners also start a stretch of games in which they play 16 of 19 at home. The Mariners have been a different team at Safeco this year, going 20-13 SU and averaging 5.1 runs per game. They are also a very favorable +5.1 units at home. The literal opposite can be said for the Tigers, who are 14-20 on the road to cost their backers -4.9 units. The Mariners are favored in this game at -142 on the moneyline at 5Dimes, while the O/U total is sitting at 9.5 runs across the board.

Anibal Sanchez is being recalled from Triple-A Toledo to start for Detroit. He was in the Tigers’ bullpen to start the season where he carried a 7.89 FIP before getting sent down to the minors. He pitched 4 innings of long relief against the Mariners at home in April, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) and a dinger. Walks were a huge issue for Sanchez this year in relief, and he carried a 3.86 BB/9 walk rate before being sent down to the minors. He was also carrying the highest fly-ball rate in his career at 47.3%, a hard-hit rate of 46.7% and a pull rate of 46.7%. That is a recipe for one thing only – dingers.

Not only did Sanchez carry a 25.7% HR/FB rate in the majors over 21 innings pitched in 2017, he carried a 20.0% HR/FB rate at Triple-A Toledo! That’s terrible. I have to believe that the only reason the Tigers are giving Sanchez this start is because he is being paid $17.6 million per year.

Mariners starter Sam Gaviglio has an even higher HR/FB% than Sanchez at 29%. He’s given up a home run, or 2 or 3, in every one of his starts except for his first. But oddly enough, the right-hander has been effective in most starts as he doesn’t walk many batters. That often leads to solo shots, and even after giving up 3 home runs in his last start he only gave up 4 earned runs and got the win in Minnesota. Gaviglio’s splits to left-handers and right-handers are both almost 100 points better than Sanchez, and his 4.13 xFIP is decent giving a normal home-run rate. Since Gaviglio runs a 53.4% ground-ball rate, I’d expect some positive regression in this regard.

The Mariners should have success against Sanchez as they have had in the past. Since I’m also expecting Gaviglio to not pitch a shutout, I will be taking the 'over' of 9.5 runs in this game. I’ll also back the Mariners home winning trend and positive pitching matchup by taking them on the money line at -142 at 5Dimes.

Free MLB Pick: Mariners -142Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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