Making Yet Another ‘Under’ MLB Pick in Canada

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 27, 2014 4:51 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 

For the third straight night, we are backing the ‘under’ in the same team matchup Wednesday night when Joe Kelly and the Boston Red Sox (58-74, 29-34 away) again pay a visit to fellow right-hander Marcus Stroman and the Toronto Blue Jays (66-66, 34-30 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET in a game available on NESN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

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Totals Split So Far
We have split with the “under’ 1-1 over the first two games of this series, both won by the Red Sox in extra innings. The series opener still managed to stay ‘under’ as Boston overcame a three-run ninth inning by Toronto to win 4-3 in 10 innings. Then the ‘over’ prevailed with the Red Sox winning 11-7 in 11 innings Tuesday, although to be fair the total was 8½ and the score was 4-4 after 10 innings.

This has definitely been a lost season for the Red Sox, who have gone from World Series Champions last year to now being in last place in the American League East and 18 games behind the first place Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays actually led the division for a while this year, but now they too have become longshot MLB picks to make the playoffs as they have dropped 10 games behind Baltimore and 6½ games out of a wild card spot.


Three Out of Four Ain’t Bad
Kelly came to the Red Sox right at the trading deadline from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of the John Lackey trade, and while he is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP since coming to the American League, those figures are skewed by one bad outing vs. the Houston Astros as the reality is that Kelly has allowed two runs or less in three of his four Boston starts.

Kelly was on his way to a gem vs. the Seattle Mariners last Friday when he allowed only one hit in five scoreless innings with five strikeouts before being pulled as a precaution with an apparent shoulder injury. Tests showed no damage however and Kelly has thrown well between starts, so there does not appear to be any need for worry.

This will be Kelly’s first appearance ever vs. Toronto, which should make him even tougher to hit.


Stroman Dominant vs. Boston
Stroman has cooled off since a hot start for the Blue Jays, as although he remains 7-5 with a good enough 1.25 WHIP, his ERA his risen to 4.11 after allowing exactly five earned runs in each of his last two outings. However, facing the Red Sox for a third time this year may be the perfect remedy for Stroman to get back on track.

That is because Stroman threw seven scoreless innings and allowed just one hit while striking out seven in his first career start vs. Boston here at Rogers Centre last month, and the Red Sox still could not figure him out in a rematch down in Fenway Park five days later when he held them to one run and six hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts.

He is facing a Boston offense batting just .227 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this season while averaging 3.74 runs per game against them, and the Red Sox are averaging 3.62 runs per game vs. righties over the last 10 games overall with a still nondescript .242 batting average. It also hurts Boston that David Ortiz is questionable for this contest with a foot contusion after missing the first two games of this series and leaving games early both Saturday and Sunday.


Going ‘under’ on Road
With last night’s result notwithstanding, the ‘under’ is still 9-3 in the Red Sox last 12 road games, and remember that even last night the teams combined to score 10 runs in the 11th inning after producing a combined eight runs in the first 10 innings.

We don’t anticipate a third straight extra-inning affair in this series tonight so let us go ‘under’ this total again in Toronto on Wednesday.
Free MLB Pick: Red Sox, Blue Jays ‘under’ 8½ (-105) at Pinnacle