Make Your MLB Pick 'Over' 9 Runs in Tigers vs. White Sox

Darin Zank

Friday, August 29, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

Detroit Tigers, trying to secure a playoff berth, visit Chicago for a four-game weekend series against the White Sox, beginning Friday night (8:10 pm ET). Which way should we go with our free MLB pick on this series opener?

The Betting Odds
In the early wagering action the best line we could find in the MLB Odds market for Detroit with Justin Verlander was the -154 offered at Pinnacle, while Chicago and rookie righty Scott Carroll could be gotten at +149 at 5Dimes. And most books were listing the total on Friday's game at nine runs.

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The Situation
Detroit just took two of three games at home from the Yankees, winning Thursday 3-2. The Tigers are 2-0-1 in their last three series, winning six of their last 10 games.

At 72-60 Detroit trails first-place Kansas City by a game and a half in the AL Central, but sits tied with Seattle for the lead in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

Meanwhile, Chicago just dropped two of three games at home to Cleveland, losing Thursday 3-2. The Sox have lost their last three series and eight of their last nine games.

At 60-73 the Southsiders have faded from playoff contention.

These two teams have split 12 meetings so far this season, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' by an 8-4 margin.

 

Friday's Starters
Carroll (5-8, 5.05) is just 4/15 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last four. Last time out he gave up four ER in six innings against the Yankees, and over his last four starts he's been tagged for 20 ER and 29 hits through 23 2/3 innings.

On the season Carroll has allowed 120 hits in 103 innings, while compiling a terribly mediocre K/BB ratio of 50/38. Chicago is 5-10 in Carroll's starts, with the totals going 8-7.

This will be Carroll's first-ever start against the Tigers.

Justin Verlander (11-11, 4.82) is 13/26 on quality starts, and while he had been going OK recently, over his last two starts, against the Pirates and Twins, he's given up eight ER and 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings. He also missed a recent turn in the rotation with a sore shoulder, so his health and durability are in question.

On the season the fading former Cy Young winner has allowed 179 hits in 164 innings, walked 58 and struck out 124. Detroit is 14-12 in Verlander's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'overs' by a 16-9 margin.

Verlander has already started three times against the White Sox this season, giving up 12 ER and 22 hits through 19 2/3 innings; the Tigers won two of those games, and two of those games played 'over' the totals.

This game involves two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Detroit relievers rank 27th in ERA at 4.41, with a combined K/BB ratio of less than 2/1, while Chicago's pen ranks 28th in ERA at 4.42, with an even worse K/BB ratio than the Tigers.

 

Tigers-Sox Betting Trends
Detroit is 69-59 on the totals this season, and has played five 'overs' in its last seven games.

Games played at the Cell have gone 34-32 on the totals this year.

 

Free Pick for Friday
We're not sure who's going to win this game, but our guess is there will be a bunch of runs scored. So we'll take the 'over' nine runs, at the -110 offered at Bookmaker, for our free MLB pick on Friday's contest.

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