Make Mets -1.5 Your Top MLB Pick as Phillies Sink Below .400

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 3:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2015 3:30 PM UTC

The Phillies and the Mets continue their early week series with game 2 scheduled for a 7:10 ET first pitch. The Mets are heavy favorites in the MLB odds market.

The Phillies and the Mets continue their early week series with game 2 scheduled for a 7:10 ET first pitch with MLB odds listing New York a heavy favorite. Last night, the Mets won (3-1). That victory extended their series dominance over Philadelphia to runs of 23-4, 13-1 and 10-0. In proving that every dog has his day in MLB, the Phillies, after starting the year 29-62, opened post-All Star play on a 13-2 run. Since, they have gone 10-14 to drop to 52-80, a .394 winning percentage, the only team in MLB to be sub .400. The Mets are clearly headed the opposite direction. They enter tonight’s play on a run of 37-21, which make them an obvious favorite on the MLB picks market. That has boosted their record to 73-58 for the season, good enough for an NL East lead over Washington of 6.5 games. Despite a recent slide on their home field, the Mets remain 44-23 when playing at home.

Pitching Rundown
Mound opponents tonight include Harang for the Phillies and Niese for the Mets. Harang is among the worst pitchers in baseball with a record of 5-14 with a 4.79 ERA. That has been even worse in his recent starts. In his last 5 outings, Harang is 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA. The Phillies have won just 3 of 11 Harang road starts. Opposing Harang tonight will be Niese who has an incredible record against the Phillies. The Mets have won his most 8 recent starts against the Phillies, in which Niese has a 2.24 ERA. From this mound, the Mets are 5-0 in the 5 most recent Niese starts in which he has a 1.50 ERA. Niese has done his best work from this mound of late. In his previous 3 home starts, Niese has a 2.84 ERA.

Betting Trends
In early August, I identified 5 National League teams, who at the time were playing sub .450 ball with no hope of post-season play. Based on their pitching and batting OPS numbers, they offered clear SELL signals. I anticipated that as prices rose against these teams, that they may indeed be outstanding PLAY AGAINST run line propositions. Little did I know how successful my thinking would be! In the month of August, these 5 teams combined for 85 losses. In 74 of those 85 losses (that is 87%), these teams lost by 2 or more runs. More specifically, 14 of 16 August losses for the Phillies were by 2 or more runs. For the YTD, 35 of their 44 road losses (80%) have been by 2 or more runs. At the other end of the spectrum is a NY Mets teams, who has played its best ball in August with 16 of their 20 (80%) of their August victories by 2 or more runs. Lay the runs with the Mets at a value price.

MLB Picks: Mets - 1 1/2 (+105) at The Greek

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