In today’s interleague matchup I am placing my MLB picks on the Minnesota Twins on the plus money line against the Pittsburgh Pirates. There's good value in today's matchup.
Pitching and the Baseball Betting Line
With Ricky Nolasco and his big ERA it makes sense that MLB odds makers have come out with this game with the Pirates favored, but I think there is good value on the Twins right now at about +150. Nolasco comes in with a 6.38 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, not good, but that was mostly due to a bad outing against Detroit his first game of the year when he allowed 6 earned runs. Interestingly enough in his last outing he allowed zero earned runs to that same Tigers team. He is a veteran pitcher with a career winning record of 98-88. Francisco Liriano comes in with an ERA just below 3.00 and a 1.00 WHIP, very solid. He has had a couple nice outings this season, but he is still beatable. He has a career ERA of just above 4.00 a 1.32 WHIP, and a career record of 77-75.
The Better Hitting Team
So far this season the Twins are the better hitting team. They rank 7th in runs scored compared to the Pirates at 25th, 20th in on base % compared to the Pirates at 26th, and 11th in batting average compared to the Pirates at 21st. Pittsburgh has picked up their stats in the last three games but still overall this season the Twins have been better.
This is a value play. I am taking a pretty good major league pitcher with the better hitting team at around +150 odds. For me that is good plus money on a game that could really go either way in my opinion. Even with the Pirates at home the value is still there with Liriano having a 4.67 ERA at home this season. Take the Twins for your value MLB pick.
MLB Picks: Twins +170 at 5Dimes