Low Total Expected When Marlins Take On Braves With Wildcard Implications

Pitcher Jose Fernandez in Action

Charles Stark

Wednesday, September 14, 2016 1:36 PM GMT

Today Braves face Marlins who counter with one of the best young pitchers today, José Fernandez. Are MLB odds for totals set correctly for this game?

Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran gets the start for Atlanta and comes in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.03 whip along with a 5-9 record. The 25-year-old right-hander has some nice numbers this year but has not got a lot of run support as evident when you look at his overall record. Against Miami, he has not pitched very well in a couple of starts allowing eight earned runs in just 12 innings of work off of 16 hits. Those numbers alone make this line today a bit interesting but when you consider his counterpart it makes a bit more sense. Teheran has the capability of keeping teams low in the numbers and outside of just a few bad starts this season he has been lighting out. Recently, he had a really rough start in Arizona at the end of August allowing six earned runs in just six innings, but outside of that in the other four out of his last five starts, he allowed just seven earned runs in 24 innings of work. 

This game is meaningful insomuch that Miami is hanging on by a thread in the wildcard so look for him to try and play spoiler by pitching well. At the plate, Atlanta has been one of the worst teams in all of the baseball although they had a bit of success against Miami's starter today. That being said in their last seven games they have either equaled or gone over the total odds makers have set today which makes this line even more interesting.

 

Miami Marlins
José Fernandez takes the mound for Miami and comes in with a 2.90 ERA and 1.15 whip but has allowed six earned runs in just under 13 innings versus Atlanta this season. All those runs he gave up to the Braves came in his last start in which he got tagged for those six earned runs in just about five innings of work back in early July. In his start against them prior to that, he threw a one-hitter over seven innings. This is an opportunity for him to get a bit of revenge coming back and pitching well in Atlanta where he struggled his last time on the mound. 

He's had some really interesting starts recently being either really hot really cold giving up 11 total earned runs in just nine innings between Cincinnati and Cleveland but then also allowing zero earned runs in three starts versus Kansas City, the Mets, and the Dodgers. He has the capability of coming in and putting up a lot of zeros today and I think he will. Offensively Miami has been hot and cold recently but is averaging just around three runs per game in their last 10 contests.

 

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
Odds makers have set the total for this game at seven across the board with higher juice on the under. Although I'm not a fan of paying the higher juice I still think this is pretty good value on two extremely good pitchers so for my MLB pick I will back them under the seven like at Pinnacle sports, an A+ rated sportsbook. This game looks to me to be a real pitcher's duel.

 

Free MLB Picks: Under 7 -114
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 9-6-1

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