Low Scoring in Altitude is the MLB Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, September 6, 2014 5:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 6, 2014 5:50 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.


There may not be that much scoring despite playing in high altitude Saturday night when young right-hander Joe Wieland and the San Diego Padres (66-74, 26-43 away) pay a visit to southpaw Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies (57-84, 37-35 home) in the second game of a three-game weekend series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 8:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +109.

Altitude Did Not Help
Playing at mile-high altitude at Coors Field in Denver did nothing to help the San Diego offense in the series opener Friday as the Padres were shut out 3-0. That marked the ninth consecutive game that San Diego scored three runs or less, and it is a testament to just how good the Padres’ pitching has been that they are actually still 5-4 in those games. The Pads are a non-threatening third in the National League West.

Meanwhile the Rockies are bringing up the rear in the division while being the worst MLB picks in the National League this year at 57-84, with only the Texas Rangers of the American League having a worse record in the majors. Colorado is actually two games over .500 here at home though at 37-35, but they have been done in by their abysmal 20-49 road mark, easily the worst in the big leagues.

Unbelievable Home Numbers
The Rockies perform better in the altitude offensively, which is understandable, but their ace starter De La Rosa is one of the few pitchers that actually like pitching in Denver. In fact, De La Rosa has been the most successful pitcher at home in Colorado history owning a 44-14 career record at Coors as a member of the Rockies, and the Rocks as a team have gone a phenomenal 46-9 in his last 55 home starts!

Even this year when very little has gone right for the team and De La Rosa himself has just a 4.26 ERA overall, he has still managed to go 9-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in the altitude of home! The last time he faced the Padres was right here back in May when De La Rosa allowed just one measly hit over seven scoreless innings.

Looking Good in Rehab Starts
Meanwhile, Wieland has missed 28 months since making five starts in 2012 and showing nice promise while allowed three runs or less in four of them as a then 22-year-old, as he has subsequently undergone two elbow surgeries. However, if his rehab starts are any indication Wieland looks to now have a clean bill of health and could be tough in his first start back facing the Rockies for the first time ever.

Back in that 2012 season, Wieland was lit up for six runs in five innings in his Major League debut before then posting a 3.17 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his next four starts before going under the knife. Now two operations later, Wieland did not appear to miss a beat during rehab as he posted a 3.03 ERA with 36 strikeouts vs. six walks in 38.2 innings.

Granted pitching in Denver in his return to the majors is not ideal but that should be offset by the unfamiliarity the Colorado lineup has with him.

Pads Trending ‘under’ on Road
One thing Wieland cannot rely on is run support, as the Padres have averaged a paltry 1.78 runs per game overall in their last nine games, and the ‘under’ is now a wallet-filling 42-20-3 in their last 65 road games.

Altitude aside, we see no reason why that ‘under’ pattern cannot continue for at least one more night in Colorado on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Padres, Rockies ‘under’ 9 (+109)

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